British Airways Announces Orders For Airbus A380's, Boeing 787's Rating Options

[robertkc]

BA gets the ball rolling with their fleet renewal... Some interesting comments from WW. Interesting that they expect first delivery of replacement long-haul a/c to take place in 2008...

Source: http://www.bashares.com

British Airways PLC - Competition for new aircraft
British Airways PLC - 17 October 2006
COMPETITION FOR NEW LONGHAUL AIRCRAFT

British Airways has launched a competition for new longhaul aircraft by issuing tender documents to aircraft and engine manufacturers. The competition, called a request for proposal (RFP), is the first step in a lengthy process before the airline makes a decision on fleet growth and replacement for the next decade.

Airbus and Boeing, and engine manufacturers, Engine Alliance, General Electric and Rolls Royce plus other key component suppliers, have been invited to bid. British Airways' chief executive, Willie Walsh, said: 'For the past four years, we have grown capacity by using our aircraft more efficiently. In order to continue to grow our longhaul business we now need additional longhaul aircraft. We remain committed to generating an economic return for our shareholders.

'Launching the competition highlights the need for us to address our £2.1 billion pension deficit. It is a major blocker to growth and investment in our business but I am confident we will resolve it. 'With a combination of firm orders and options, we are planning for both growth and fleet replacement into the next decade. Environmental performance will be one of the key criteria in our choice ensuring greater fuel efficiency, reduced noise and emissions. The first aircraft to be replaced are the 20 Boeing 747s and 14 Boeing 767s, which will be around 25 years old,' he said.

Subject to the outcome of the RFP competition, orders are expected to be placed during next year. The aircraft being considered for the airline's longhaul fleet are the Airbus A330, A350, A380 and Boeing 787, B777 and B747-8.

Notes to editors:
British Airways has 284 aircraft in its fleet of which 114 are longhaul aircraft. Its longhaul fleet comprises 57 Boeing 747-400s, 43 B777s (three B777-200A, 24 B777-200IGW and 16 B777-200ER) and 14 B767-300s.

Projected entry into service dates for the Airbus A380 is 2007, A350 XWB is between 2012-2014 and B787 is 2008. There is no confirmed entry into service date for the passenger version of the B747-800. An A380 or B747-8 is likely to have at least 17 per cent lower fuel burn per seat and 21 per cent lower NOx than a B747-400. The A380 and B747-8 are expected to be noticeably quieter on arrival than the B747-400.
This information is provided by RNS - The company news service from the London Stock Exchange

Some follow up comments from Willie Walsh on the conference call:

BN 7:50 *BRITISH AIRWAYS CHIEF WALSH SPOKE IN CONFERENCE CALL :BA US
BN 7:49 *BRITISH AIRWAYS SEES PLANE ORDER TAKING 9 TO 12 MONTHS
BN 7:48 *BRITISH AIRWAYS EXPECTS TO MEET NOV. PENSION-ACCORD DEADLINE
BN 7:47 *BRITISH AIRWAYS CHIEF `CONFIDENT' OF RESOLVING PENSION GAP
BN 7:47 *BRITISH AIRWAYS SEES THIS AS `GOOD TIME' TO BE SEEKING PLANES
BN 7:46 *BRITISH AIRWAYS `VERY FLEXIBLE' ON CHOOSING PLANE SUPPLIER
BN 7:45 *BRITISH AIRWAYS EXPECTS FIRST PLANE DELIVERIES IN LATE 2008
BN 7:43 *BRITISH AIRWAYS CHIEF SEES A380 EVENTUALLY AS SUCCESSFUL MODEL

[ProudWings]

A couple of initial thoughts - if BA are expecting initial delivery in 2008, then they must surely be ordering (or have already ordered) the 777 - nothing else from the list of potential models will be available that soon.

Also, if the 16 763s are among the earliest craft to leave the fleet, then I suppose BA won't be taking back the 763s they have leased to QF?

[nikkei_225]

Considering the first delivery is to take place from 2008, the option for 10 777s, tentatively scheduled for delivery to start from 2008, will most likely be firmed up soon. If Boeing plays right here, I think it could win British Airways' order outright.

[Aurora]

Article from a UK news source today on the possible delay of the A350 (in whatever version) until 2014.
http://www.lse.co.uk/FinanceNews.asp?share...to_2014__report
Makes me want to go out and put some money down on delivery slots. Maybe I'll get compensation when it's delayed again?

[nikkei_225]

I thought the XWB was the right way to go for Airbus in competing with the 787 but as the EIS gets slipped further and further right, now I wonder if staying with the old A350 would have been a better option for Airbus. EIS of 6 years behind the 787 is just way too far back. I don't think the A330 can hold that long against the 787, unless Airbus sells them below costs.

[kimshep]

Here's the Reuters report, currently doing the rounds. Some interesting comments on the funding / pension benefit aspects of the deal :

http://news.moneycentral.msn.com/provider/...&ID=6108363

BA invites Boeing, Airbus tenders for new planes

LONDON (Reuters) - British Airways launched a long-awaited competition on Tuesday to replace its fleet of 114 long-haul Boeing aircraft, a move that could generate crucial orders for Boeing's rival Airbus.

Europe's third-biggest airline, which wants to take delivery of the first new planes by early 2009, said it was too soon to say how many planes it would acquire, although analysts said the bill would be at least $7 billion.

An early order date could benefit Boeing, since Airbus is struggling to launch its proposed new mid-sized A350 model -- now set for 2012 deliveries at the earliest -- and will still be working through a series of delayed orders for the first of its A380 superjumbos.

BA Chief Executive Willie Walsh did not dismiss the possibility of including A380s in the requirements and said he was confident that production problems with that aircraft could be resolved.

But analysts expected BA's requirements would be allotted on a winner-take-all basis.

"We believe it is unlikely the order will be split between the two aircraft manufacturers, given the operating and maintenance simplicity of operating a single fleet," UBS analysts said in a client note.

Walsh said BA had issued invitation to tender documents to both Airbus and Boeing, as well as engine makers General Electric and Rolls-Royce. He expected proposals from the planemakers by the end of the year.

At 1020 GMT British Airways shares were down 2 percent at 441 pence, the biggest faller on the UK's benchmark FTSE-100 index.

PENSION DEAL

Analysts expect that BA, already stretched as it tries to resolve a 2.1 billion-pound ($3.91 billion) pension deficit, will go further into debt to fund the acquisitions.

"Their debt is obviously going to go up quite significantly," said Exane BNP analyst Nick van den Brul, who added that $7 billion was probably a minimum estimate for the cost of the order.

BA said it expected to place the orders next year and that the aircraft it was considering were Airbus's A330, A350 and A380s and Boeing's 787, 777 and 747-8s. List prices for the aircraft range from $160 million to $316 million.

A BA spokesman said it would not consider the four-engine A340 model because it did not suit its needs.

Boeing expects to begin deliveries of the 787 in 2008 but heavy demand could make it tough for BA to find aircraft for several years unless other carriers are willing to swap their delivery slots with BA.

BA announced earlier this year it had secured delivery slots for 10 777s by 2010.

BA is expected to negotiate discounts of at least 20 percent to list prices, analysts said.

Walsh told reporters it was vital for BA to tackle the pension issue before it started ordering new aircraft. The airline wants a deal with staff by November.

Walsh expected a response from manufacturers to the tender invitation toward the end of this year and first deliveries of new aircraft to BA in late 2008 or early 2009. He did not say how BA would fund the acquisitions.

BA has long flagged its intention to upgrade its fleet but said it would not take delivery of any planes until it moves into a new terminal at London's Heathrow airport in 2008.

BA currently has 284 aircraft in its fleet, of which 114 are long-haul planes. The long-haul fleet includes 57 Boeing 747-400s, 43 B777s and 14 B767-300s.

BA said the first aircraft to be replaced would be 20 Boeing 747s and 14 Boeing 767s, which will be around 25 years old.

[NYC777]

Ok a couple of questions,

Will BA announce one big order in about 9 to 12 months (July - Oct. 2007), or are they going to do it piecemeal (A330 vs 787, A350 vs 787 & 777, A380 vs 748I)?

Are they still going to go ahead and order the 777s they have reserved the delivery slots for? Those are for 2008 so I'm assumin that the answer is yes but who knows?

[B777-338ER]

Ok a couple of questions,

Will BA announce one big order in about 9 to 12 months (July - Oct. 2007), or are they going to do it piecemeal (A330 vs 787, A350 vs 787 & 777, A380 vs 748I)?

Are they still going to go ahead and order the 777s they have reserved the delivery slots for? Those are for 2008 so I'm assumin that the answer is yes but who knows?

Good question though their hand is being forced. They must make a decision on the 777 delivery slots by year end or lose out and accept a later delivery date, which is getting harder. Only in the last few days Mr Clark of EK stated they were looking to take slots off carriers which didn't or may no longer require the 777. To me that implies EK want and will get more that 5-7 7773ERs.

BA have to be decisive on the production slot rights or they will lose out.

[BOEING777]

AFAIK NYC777, the initial order for 2008 deliveries will be the 10 options it holds on the 777 family.

While I'll have a better gauge by the end of the month, there is still a split choice within BA who would prefer the -200LR to the -300ER. What there wont be is a split of the two. With BA starting a 777 service to Australia, the 77L never had a better chance to secure another big customer behind it after EK. Im suspecting myself that the -300ER will win out, being as though its the better seller overall.

With regards to the 744 replacement, you can bet your buttocks that nothing apart from the -8I will win out here. The real question is numbers. At the moment, all eyes are on the 787-9 and -10. Given that GE will bend over backwards to fight for engine commonality here, you may see either the 787 order first, followed by the -8I or vice versa. I cant see BA ordering GEnx 747-8Is and then go RR for the 787. Doesnt make sense.

As said, I'll know more toward month end and will update accordingly.

[CXBoi]

I think you will be looking at BA ordering the 77W unless Airbus has actually started production of the A350XWB-FUBAR secretly while nobody was looking.

I think the 77L is too small for BA. IMHO.

[BOEING777]

77L is far from small for BA's cargo needs, I can assure you.

[NYC777]

I think the 77L is too small for BA. IMHO.

Why, They operate a large number of 772ERs and they're the same size. Though I do agree that they will probably act on the 77W before year end as it'll be a great fit between teh 772ERs and the 744s they currently have. I trully see this going Boeing's way and the only reason to get Airbus involved is to keep Boeing honest and on their toes. Boeing had better keep plenty of sharp pencils about.

AFAIK NYC777, the initial order for 2008 deliveries will be the 10 options it holds on the 777 family.

While I'll have a better gauge by the end of the month, there is still a split choice within BA who would prefer the -200LR to the -300ER. What there wont be is a split of the two. With BA starting a 777 service to Australia, the 77L never had a better chance to secure another big customer behind it after EK. Im suspecting myself that the -300ER will win out, being as though its the better seller overall.

With regards to the 744 replacement, you can bet your buttocks that nothing apart from the -8I will win out here. The real question is numbers. At the moment, all eyes are on the 787-9 and -10. Given that GE will bend over backwards to fight for engine commonality here, you may see either the 787 order first, followed by the -8I or vice versa. I cant see BA ordering GEnx 747-8Is and then go RR for the 787. Doesnt make sense.

As said, I'll know more toward month end and will update accordingly.

Do you work for BA? Are you somehow in the know? Please do tell any secrets you wish to share!!! Also if you know anything in terms of when announcments will be made please do share that as well.

This post has been edited by NYC777: Oct 17 2006, 02:15 PM

[BOEING777]

Nice try NYC, I'll hand you that (See PM).

The "news" is far from mine to break

[robertkc]

IMHO, the timing of this announcement is more interesting than the announcement itself. We all knew they were to embark on long-haul fleet renewal and most of the members of this forum could have written that release.

The timing issue relates to the negotiations with staff on altering the pension provisions - as we all know their deficit has increased rather too much - this announcement seems a tactical move to place the ball back in the unions court vis-a-vis concessions...

[Matthaeus]

Good question though their hand is being forced. They must make a decision on the 777 delivery slots by year end or lose out and accept a later delivery date, which is getting harder. Only in the last few days Mr Clark of EK stated they were looking to take slots off carriers which didn't or may no longer require the 777. To me that implies EK want and will get more that 5-7 7773ERs.

BA have to be decisive on the production slot rights or they will lose out.

That seems certain to be a key piece of the puzzle. It’s a fair guess to start with 77W’s (I agree more likely than 77L and also a reasonable fit for part of their 744 replacement) and let most of the speculation focus on other areas... though we could be surprised if A offers a creative enough deal for their 350 despite its underdog status and clouded future. And wouldn’t it be something if BA stepped into the vanguard role of deploying the 77L nonstop on the Australian route...?

One sign of the times is that none of their old fleet is going to be able to get exact 1:1 size replacements by the most modern offerings. The 788 (if they are interested in this subtype) is a significant step up in size and capability from the 763 and will represent a new size niche for BA; their 744’s will be ‘pincered’ by a hypothetical 77W/748 or new 350/380 combo. I am not so sure about a winner-take-all here. It’s hardly like QF where similar capability (key point!) models were planned to be split between 2 sister carriers; here, there’s great diversity in the size of aircraft being considered and, hence, opportunity for a divided order.

[Stratoliner777]

With regards to the 744 replacement, you can bet your buttocks that nothing apart from the -8I will win out here. The real question is numbers. At the moment, all eyes are on the 787-9 and -10. Given that GE will bend over backwards to fight for engine commonality here, you may see either the 787 order first, followed by the -8I or vice versa. I cant see BA ordering GEnx 747-8Is and then go RR for the 787. Doesnt make sense.

As said, I'll know more toward month end and will update accordingly.

Your confidence is interesting to see, and I of course am on the other side of the pond. I was reading about the New Club World and how the config needs to be moved back towards the wing section, thus moving the World Traveler Plus cabin forward--owing to the width of the cabin. Would the A380 make any difference there?

Overall, I'd like to see the 747-8I win out--IAGBlog suggests LH's decision may have impact...I'd also like to see BA get the best aircraft overall. It seems that the 747-8I is a strong competitor despite less seats than the A380...at 460+ seats, but it supposedly will have better CASM, etc. And considering the improvements that Boeing has made to the aircraft, the innovative SkyLoft space, the fleet commonality and overall flexibility at the world's airports, I think the 747-8I has a strong case.

But then again, Willie Walsh was at Aer Lingus...will BA do something unexpected?

[BOEING777]

^

yes I saw Addi's comments about LH, and I will opt to digress. I dont think BA has ever given a monkeys about what pan EU airlines do in terms of fleet renewal, much less focus on a smaller rival like LH.

As for the A380, I will bet on no uncertain terms that its not even on the table for discussion- the fact its there is to eke better 747-8I pricing- full stop. In part because Boeing hasnt yet secured any major customer for it, and because the current A380 debacle has reinforced head honcho's at BA to step further away from it, not closer.

LHR is severely congested, and with the ICAO wake ruling on separation and almost zero space to grow the airport physically, adding the A380 will cause more harm than good- whereas the -8I will be a near flawless fit into both BA's fleet and the current infrastructure.

Just because Walsh was an Aer Lingus man doesnt mean he has a total free hand at BA. BA is an institution, and has internally sometimes referred to itself as "Boeing Always", for long haul at least anyway.

What this order will hinge on, is price and delivery slots. This is a Boeing order that cannot be lost IMHO- Airbus is way too behind the curve to facilitate anything that BA's RFP covers. The rest can be read between the lines

[NYC777]

Ok so the 777 vs A330, A350 contesst will be decided be fore the end of the year.

But when do you reckon the contests between the 787 vs. A350, A330 will decided as well as the 748I vs A380? Do you think it'll take them less than a year if Airbus has more set backs to the A380 and the A350?

[BOEING777]

IMHO I dont think Airbus has a hope in hell for any of the widebody order. Why buy the A330 when the 787 has effectively made it redundant? The A350 is possibly over a half decade late- and the A380 will sport a decade old technology in it if BA ever ordered and had it delievered.

Not really prudent considering they wish to start renewals in less than 17 months from now. Again, I still think the A380 is in the mix to secure better pricing on the -8I. Airbus could give the A380 away far cheaply than could Boeing on the -8I, but the ancilliary services for the -8I are far lower than the A380, which would have to wait until BA fully moved into T5 anyway.

The first tranche of the order will be 777 and 787. However, the big money deal will come later to cover the 747-400 replacement- but not all 57 are being replaced- possibly 25-odd frames from G-BNLA to -Z.

[CXBoi]

Here is my guess.

BA will order the 77W (ten, maybe?) to replace the oldest of their 744s and add a few more 772ER into the game to supplement the 767s. Why no 748i (sounds like a BMW )? Same reason as to why CX wont be launch customer, they dont like to be the first customer for a new aircraft. They will order the 787 some time, my guess would be a mix of 787-8,9 and the yet to be launched 10X. The 10X will replace their oldest 772ERs.

Airbus to BA - never gonna happen IMHO. The A380 is too big and the A350XWB-FUBAR speaks for itself. Ask yourself this question: Why would BA order an Airbus replacement for the 777 aircraft they seem to love so much?

This post has been edited by CXBoi: Oct 17 2006, 11:51 PM

[robertkc]

yes I saw Addi's comments about LH, and I will opt to digress. I dont think BA has ever given a monkeys about what pan EU airlines do in terms of fleet renewal, much less focus on a smaller rival like LH.

I sort of agree with that statement, but LH actually carries more pax than BA do (marginally) & LH have a massive competitive advantage that BA could only dream of: 2 home airports that will have a combined 7 runways by 2010-ish versus LGW & LHR's combined paltry 3 runways.

LHR is severely congested, and with the ICAO wake ruling on separation and almost zero space to grow the airport physically,

This huge problem for LHR will solve itself sooner than some people at BA may think. Ferrovial (the Spanish company who bought British Airports Authority back in June) are seriously aggresive and will use RPG's if they have to to get Sipson bulldozed and that 3rd short runway built next to the M4 (or so that's what I hear

Just because Walsh was an Aer Lingus man doesnt mean he has a total free hand at BA. BA is an institution, and has internally sometimes referred to itself as "Boeing Always", for long haul at least anyway.
What this order will hinge on, is price and delivery slots. This is a Boeing order that cannot be lost IMHO- Airbus is way too behind the curve to facilitate anything that BA's RFP covers. The rest can be read between the lines

I couldn't agree more.

[CXBoi]

BA SERIOUSLY CONSIDERING THE AIRBUS A380

British Airways is considering buying up to 15 of Airbus' controversial A380 super-jumbos as part of a major renewal of its long-haul fleet, costing £5.5bn-£8bn over 10 years. The airline yesterday kick-started one of the biggest investment programmes ever in aviation when it issued tender documents for the eventual replacement of its 114 long-haul aircraft. It also plans to increase its capacity by 3pc-4pc per year.

Willie Walsh, BA's chief executive, said: "For the past four years we have grown capacity by using our aircraft more efficiently. Now we need additional aircraft." BA shares fell 9 to 441p.

As Mr Walsh has always linked ordering planes to resolving the airline's £2.1bn pension deficit, the move suggests a deal is increasingly likely. Noting that the pension fund trustees wanted a deal by mid-November, Mr Walsh said: "We are making progress and the timescale is realistic."
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BA has invited aircraft manufacturers Airbus and Boeing, and engine makers General Electric, Rolls-Royce and Engine Alliance to bid by the end of the year. Mr Walsh said BA would "probably take between nine and 12 months" to place any orders.

The airline is considering Airbus' A330, A350 and A380 models and Boeing's 787, B777 and B747-8 aircraft. The first planes to be replaced will be its 20 747s and 14 767s, which are around 25 years old. Deliveries are expected in late 2008, at the earliest.

Mr Walsh said the well-publicised delays to Airbus' 550-seater A380 had not put him off. "We could take 10, 12 or 15 of this aircraft," he said.

"It's not a surprise to me that it's proving to be difficult to get it into service, but it would be foolish not to consider it."

BA's entire long-haul fleet is made up of Boeing aircraft, but Mr Walsh said: "Given that this is a decision for the next 25 or 30 years, a mixed fleet is a possible option." BA is also looking at different size aircraft, spanning 250 to 550 seats.

Chris Avery, an analyst at JP Morgan, said: "He's not going to rule out the A380 or any Airbus aircraft because he's got to have a sword to hang over Boeing."

The various aircraft have list prices ranging from $160m to $316m (£85m-£170m) but industry sources expect BA to get huge discounts for such a big order.

Emirates is believed to have acquired some A380s for less than $100m each.

Mr Walsh said: "I can assure you that we will be looking to negotiate significant discounts on the list price."

I guess Walsh is thinking if EK can get them for under $100million why couldnt BA. But then again I suspect that this could be giving boeing somehting to think about as the article mentions.

[BOEING777]

While the article focusses on BA expansion, even Walsh himself fails to mention the requirement for bigger airplanes, let alone "seriously"

Chris Avery, an analyst at JP Morgan, said: "He's not going to rule out the A380 or any Airbus aircraft because he's got to have a sword to hang over Boeing."

Perhaps Airbus will throw a deal so juicy BA cant refuse- but Im still in the camp that the A380 will be used for nothing but better pricing on the -8I. BA doesnt need to worry about being its launch customer, since the -8F will be in service and the VIP variants may well arrive before BA's do too.

That article is much ado about nothing IMHO.

[BOEING777]

"There is a certain logic to having the orders placed with one manufacturer because it eliminates a bit of complexity. But I would not rule out a mixed order," he said.

Link

[Stratoliner777]

"An afford BA can't refuse" -- an offer's an offer, but when A can't even get its production schedule fully sorted out, doesn't that pull the rug out from serious consideration of any offers?

[BOEING777]

Realistically, BA cant get its hands on an A380 till 2010, same time as when the 747-8I enters service.

As far as I can tell, the -8I has grown in size and maintained the 8000nm range with better economics than first envisaged- whereas the A380 has had to adhere to a failed wing test, increased separation, 3 major delays and IFE setbacks.

To me, this is one area where the derivative has the upper hand.

[SthPacific787]

While the article focusses on BA expansion, even Walsh himself fails to mention the requirement for bigger airplanes, let alone "seriously"

Chris Avery, an analyst at JP Morgan, said: "He's not going to rule out the A380 or any Airbus aircraft because he's got to have a sword to hang over Boeing."

Perhaps Airbus will throw a deal so juicy BA cant refuse- but Im still in the camp that the A380 will be used for nothing but better pricing on the -8I. BA doesnt need to worry about being its launch customer, since the -8F will be in service and the VIP variants may well arrive before BA's do too.

That article is much ado about nothing IMHO.

Surely the comments about the 380 are designed to put the ante on Boeing?

I agree with Avery. BA has to have leverage there somewhere

[aschonland]

We all think the same thing - BA will buy Boeing. Even Boeing's people who traipse through these pages, and others, know this.

The question is how seriously will BA look at anything from Airbus? BA's selection of the 320 drew gasps - as did United's 320 selection - in Seattle years ago. I can't see Airbus pulling this off again.

Airbus does not have anything in the bigger category other than the 340 and 330. The 380 & 350 are, shall we say, not really in play. BA won't buy the 330/340 - I'll take a bet on that.

And if I were at LH, I would be ordering from Boeing in such way to snooker BA on the 747i, 777 and 787. Sort of irritates two birds (EADS/Airbus & BA) with one stone. BTW if LH decides on the 787 before MOL gets both his paws on Aer Lingus, they can even irritate him by locking up delivery slots and put a wrench in his plans. As Airbus flounders, Boeing sits pretty and airlines, even while denying it, have to scramble.

Unless, of course, a Boeing/BA deal has been done quietly already. I think this quite likely because everyone has the same information. Remember Boeing's comment about 1,000 787s being offered? We can only account for about half that officially as orders.

[Matthaeus]

I’d certainly hold on to the contrapositive (something like ‘BA will not buy only A’) as slightly less risky in an already conceivable proposition of a B sweep. Proceeding from that kind of assumption, one should watch for contrary messages that BA might divide the order or have a newfound infatuation with the 380.

The VLA decision will be interesting in light of their previous reluctance to be the first launch new models (if this policy is still in place). The 380 has its well-known problems now, and no matter what reassurances from the manufacturer that it will hit the skies with otherwise usual service issues ironed out, this model is simply going to warrant extra caution for the first few operators for at least a couple of years. If they ended up being the first to take the Pax 748, this would already have flown as the freighter previously, and that could make the 748 less risky from the EIS perspective.

[BOEING777]

Airbus does not have anything in the bigger category other than the 340 and 330. The 380 & 350 are, shall we say, not really in play. BA won't buy the 330/340 - I'll take a bet on that.

I think even Airbus knows that! GIven the A330 is yesterdays news, the 787 is the winner, with the -9 making up the bulk of the fleet. Secondly, with over 40 777's in operation, why would BA even consider the A340? The only thing the A340 is good for is scrapping.

We all know what the order will be, whats not clear is the numbers involved, bar the 10 777 slots which will be firmed up very soon.

[BOEING777]

Article Courtesy Of Flight Global.com

BA could opt for a mix of ultra-large types

By Max Kingsley-Jones

British Airways' long-expected move toward ultra-large aircraft was confirmed last week, with the airline revealing it could opt to replace its existing Boeing 747-400s with a mix of Airbus A380s and 747-8s.

[robertkc]

Here's an update following BA's presentation in London this morning on fleet renewal:

-BA expect the tender docs to be submitted to them by Airbus and Beoing by the end of '06.
-The lead times (on aircraft it has considered to order) range from 2008 to 2013 (not hard to read between the lines here)
-No new a/c will be taken delivery of before the move into Terminal 5 at LHR in March '08
-'Envronmental performance will be a crucial factor in assessing any new a/c'

From the Q&A:
Q: How can you consider the A350 until full specifications have been released by A?
A: It is crucial to maintain competition between A & B. We'll wait to here what the specs of the A350 are as we won't consider any A350 order until we're ‘fully clear as to what specifications of it are’.

Hope this helps/illuminates.

[BOEING777]

^

And yet a couple days earlier I posted this:

http://www.fleetbuzz.com/forums//index.php?showtopic=8224

You may ask why I suddenly "discount" the A350 from the running here, but lets face it- BA has never intended to, in any of the previous failed half dozen revisions to take it seriously as part of its long haul fleet strategy- and those words are not mine.

Given that realistically the XWB will not be available until 2014, its already out of the running at BA.

Hold on to your hats for that 787 order

[robertkc]

Hold on to your hats for that 787 order

Willie Walsh also stated that they maintain their preference to not be a launch customer for any aircraft (therefore, any 747-8i order may have to wait till after LH has placed an order?!) WW also said that "they're glad they weren't the launch customer for the A380!"

This post has been edited by robertkc: Nov 3 2006, 11:52 AM

[BOEING777]

^

Not just the -8I, the BA board are just itchy that the 787-10 hasnt gotten the thumbs up yet. Be sure that once it has a launch customer, BA will not be far behind.

[NYC777]

^

Not just the -8I, the BA board are just itchy that the 787-10 hasnt gotten the thumbs up yet. Be sure that once it has a launch customer, BA will not be far behind.

I think the -10 launch is right around the corner. I'm going to go out there and say that IMO Boeing will launch the -10 by the end of January so they could start taking orders from the likes of BA, EK and SQ. I would also think that the engine manufactruers will easily be able to give the -10 the extra 5k to 8k of thrust needed to give the plane decent range.

[BOEING777]

I certainly hope so, and your positivity also encourages me to believe that the -10 is months away, not years.

RR and GE have the ability to get the engines for this beauty, its just a question of which carrier bites.

[Matthaeus]

I would also think that the engine manufactruers will easily be able to give the -10 the extra 5k to 8k of thrust needed to give the plane decent range.

This is reminiscent of the 350 situation, where RR reportedly can scale up their technology and is willing to do so on business grounds, while GE apparently has more technical constraints and risks stepping on its own GE90 business. But the latter consideration for GE is basically the same question for B about the 772: it seems like that market is reasonably saturated already, and so just how challenging, really, are the technical aspects of scaling up the GEnx?

[Stratoliner777]

I'm hoping for an EK/LH 748I order, followed soon by BA...!

[UNDBoeingNut]

put QF on the -10 list.