British Airways Announces Orders For Airbus A380's, Boeing 787's Rating Options

[BOEING777]

I suppose they have no need to switch 772ERs to 772LRs like DL?

BA World Cargo has for years favoured the 777-200LR for the ability to displace the current -200ER and operate its routes with greater freight (weight) aboard. BA doesnt have its own dedicated freighter fleet (aside those leased from Atlas Air) and the -200LR would be a great fit, as would the W.

[CXBoi]

I am gonna go out on a limb and make a prediction of the aircraft to be ordered, so here goes:

10 772ER as the so called bridging aircraft

I definitely see the 77W replacing some 744s in the BA fleet, why?

It is a well known fact that the 77W is X% more efficient to operate over any given distance than a 744 (if anyone has the figure Id appreciate it!) but the seating capacity is not significantly different. If we use CX as an example the 77W will come in two versions (according to Wikipedia) one seating 306 in a 6F/60J/240Y in a Premium layout or 336 in 6F/40J/290Y in a Standard layout. If we compare the Premium layout of our 74J which is 12F/65J/268Y the 77W Premium carries 39 less passengers but the aircraft's efficiency more than makes up for a lower seat count. In the Standard config the 77W has 47 less seats. Now you know why CX wants the 77W as the mainstay of our longhaul fleet and I am quite sure BA has probably come to the same conclusions. $$$$$$$

For BA, I am holding out for 15 77W and maybe 10 748I with options for both the 77W and 748I.

So its 10 772ER, 15 77W, 10 748-I and 15 787. (Wouldnt it be odd if I hit the nail right on the head?)

The remainder of the order will be for 789 with an option to convert these to 787-10X should Boeing go ahead with said aircraft (they'd be nuts not too IMHO!).

So why no Airbus? Well I think Airbus has serious credibility problems at the moment. The A380 has yet to prove itself in airline service and as with most Airbus widebodies, it will fall short. The only Airbus widebody that has actually performed to spec being the A332. Airbus is making huge promises with the A350 that I doubt they can promise on hence a general lack of interest in said product since its official launch. I do, however see VS ordering a substantial number of A350s to replace their A340s but that is a different topic altogether.

[longreach]

I find the content of this RFP rather intriguing and very hard to predict an outcome(as it should be). Firstly, I wonder if the final order will match the RFP. RFPs have a habit of changing dramatically in a short space of time. QF is a prime example, where they decided not to split 787/350 and went all one OEM and also increased the volume of the order significantly. They also went one type only(787), when the 777 was always thought to be in the running.

So, we have 20 744s to be replaced by 748I/388/773ER and unlikely to be split.

14 763s to be replaced by 350/789/7810

10 interim planes(772ER/330) to enter service from 2009

No mention whether the non -VLA portion of the order is likely to be split. The hardest to pick IMO is what they will replace the 763s with? Obviously, the winner of the 10 interim planes will also win the 763 replacement. So, it's Boeing offering interim 772ERs before 789/-10 and Airbus offering 330 before 350-900/-1000. I actually think Airbus have a good chance here, due to the availability/suitability of the 330 as a 763 replacement compared to the 772ER. However, the 772ER is incumbent at BA, which would be an advantage to Boeing.
Also interesting to note that no 772 replacement is being looked at yet. That will be part of the whole strategy IMO. The 787/350 could both fill this role.
Will BA be prepared to give all this business to Airbus and effectively head down an all Airbus path, when their existing LH fleet is all Boeing? Unlikely IMO.
When in 2007 is the order due to be announced(early, mid, late)? Will it all be announced at once? Boeing777 has hinted that the VLA component could be announced sooner than expected.
I don't see Airbus out of this at all, but my hazy prediction would be:

748I/789/7810 order, as the 787 would be the best 763 and eventual 772ER replacement aircraft. I think if the order was split it would be 380/787.

[BOEING777]

Hehe, nice to see the intrigue growing- I should hopefully have an update next week, so will divulge more then- stay tuned

[CXBoi]

I think BA should bring back the VC10 and BAC1-11. Used to love flying the Pocket Rocket as the 1-11 used to be called by BA Manchester.

[11Bravo]

I think the unpredictability of Airbus development programs will spook BA. I predict the order goes all Boeing.

10 B748i (10 options)
10 B77W (10 options)
20 B787 (20 options)

[nikkei_225]

04/01/07
SOURCE:Flight International
British Airways evaluates widebody proposals from Airline analyses RFP responses from Airbus and Boeing as it seeks 50 aircraft to replace 767s and 747-400s
By Max Kingsley-Jones

Airline analyses RFP responses from Airbus and Boeing as it seeks 50 aircraft to replace 767s and 747-400s
British Airways has begun evaluating responses from suppliers to its request for proposals (RFP) for upward of 50 widebody aircraft to replace its Boeing 767s and older 747-400s.

The airline issued the RFP to Airbus and Boeing and the engine manufacturers in October, and the responses were all due back by the end of December, says BA commercial director Robert Boyle. "We're analysing the responses and preparing to begin the first round of negotiations," he says.

A final decision on the order is expected in 2007 to enable the first deliveries of "bridging aircraft" in early 2009, adds Boyle.

Speaking to Flight International during the launch of BA's London-Calgary service last month, Boyle said the airline's core requirement totals 40-50 aircraft plus options. The requirement includes 34 aircraft to replace its 20 oldest Boeing 747-400s and its 14 767-300ERs as well as 10 bridging aircraft and units to cover the airline's growth requirements.

The Airbus A330 and Boeing 777-200ER are in contention for the short-term bridging requirement for delivery from 2009, ahead of the main fleet expansion package, which will comprise either the A350 or the 777-300ER and 787-9/10 for the twinjet requirement and the A380 or 747-8 for the large-aircraft requirement. Boyle says the A340-600 was excluded because BA is looking to the A350-1000 for its requirements in this size category from Airbus.

"We have already reserved 10 777-200ER production slots from 2009," says Boyle, but these bridging deliveries will be confirmed only if the Boeing 777-300ER/787 package is selected. "If we go with Airbus, then the A330 will be the bridge to the A350."

For the 747 replacement, Boyle says deliveries would be in the 2011 to 2013/14 timeframe and it is "extremely unlikely" BA will split the initial 747-400 replacement deal between the A380 and 747-8. "But it might be different for the next batch," he adds, implying the airline could ultimately acquire a mix of both ultra-large types to replace its entire 747-400 fleet.

Boyle acknowledges that the recent Lufthansa 747-8 order improves the prospects for Boeing because "BA doesn't usually like to be the first customer". He says the recent delays that have blighted the A380 programme do not concern him, but they "make it likely that we'll get a better deal out of Airbus".

http://www.flightglobal.com/Articles/2007/...Airbus+and.html

[CXBoi]

He says the recent delays that have blighted the A380 programme do not concern him, but they "make it likely that we'll get a better deal out of Airbus".

Interesting remark but I still see BA ordering the 748I as the A380 still wont be in service when it comes time to place the order. Airbus would have to literally give these planes to BA for BA to shun the 748I. Hey, sillier things have happened.

[mbflyer]

He says the recent delays that have blighted the A380 programme do not concern him, but they "make it likely that we'll get a better deal out of Airbus".

Interesting remark but I still see BA ordering the 748I as the A380 still wont be in service when it comes time to place the order. Airbus would have to literally give these planes to BA for BA to shun the 748I. Hey, sillier things have happened.

It seems to me that the A350 program is just not far along for an airline like BA to commit to it a this point. Sure, bridge it with some A330s, but that will not have the same capabilities as the 787-10 or 773ER. And then compare fuel efficiency of the 748I with the A380 on a per trip basis (CASM assumes that enough A380 seats will be filled), and the enviornmental concerns in the UK, and you've got some real big challenges at Airbus to win this one.

[CoachBoy]

f we use CX as an example the 77W will come in two versions (according to Wikipedia) one seating 306 in a 6F/60J/240Y in a Premium layout or 336 in 6F/40J/290Y in a Standard layout. If we compare the Premium layout of our 74J which is 12F/65J/268Y the 77W Premium carries 39 less passengers but the aircraft's efficiency more than makes up for a lower seat count. In the Standard config the 77W has 47 less seats. Now you know why CX wants the 77W as the mainstay of our longhaul fleet and I am quite sure BA has probably come to the same conclusions. $$$$$$$

It will be very interesting to see how BA would configure these aircraft, assuming they go the 77W route. BA generally runs a lower seat count per plane than most competitors. Their 772's have a total of 229 seats over 4 classes, of which 102 are not economy. Do they use the extra space for premium seats, thereby freeing up more takeoff weight for cargo, or more economy seats. Assuming they kept roughly the same ratios of first/business/prem.econ/econ, we would probably see an 20/56/56/163 arrangement for a total of 295 seats. This would add 1 row each to first and business, 2 rows to prem economy, and 4 rows to economy.

In terms of measuring efficiency, based on the advertised number on A and B's websites, assuming max T/O wieght, this is what I came up with

777-300ER - 60.05 Seat Miles/ Gallon
777-200ER - 51.4 Seat Miles/ Gallon
777-200LR - 53.05 Seat Miles/ Gallon
777-300 - 48.78 Seat Miles/ Gallon
747-400ER - 50.08 Seat Miles/ Gallon
747-400 - 52.72 Seat Miles/ Gallon
A340-600 - 47.38 Seat Miles/Gallon
A330-300 - 64.92 Seat Miles/Gallon

[Matthaeus]

Boyle acknowledges that the recent Lufthansa 747-8 order improves the prospects for Boeing because "BA doesn't usually like to be the first customer".

It seems to me that the A350 program is just not far along for an airline like BA to commit to it a this point.

Now that we have such a direct policy position from BA itself about being averse to launching new models, that does bring up the question whether the 350 would be sufficiently ‘worn in’ by the time BA would intend to be receiving them. Also, are 777 slots really that much harder to come by than 330 slots, thus necessitating public acknowledgement of 10 777’s held but no such arrangement for 330’s?

[BOEING777]

^

FWIW, A330's have never been on BA's agenda because of the total inferiority to the 777's it operates. Also, the numbers may also rise significantly for a 787-sized order from 20 to 35 or more with a similar number of convertable options. The 787-8 and -9 are all but guaranteed with the -10ER to follow once launched.

The 10 777 options are now pitched to go the W's way, to allow the first batch of 5-7 747-400's to be phased out. The 747-8I will be ordered in similar numbers to LH, albeit with few options. The XWB1000 has been put on hold indefinitely as the Board now does not rule out a mixed widebody fleet- a first for the carrier. But this again depends on the XWB EIS and whether or not Airbus can deliver.

I'll update as I get more news

[longreach]

Do I interpret that as the only Airbus model in the running is the 350-1000? You said the 788/9 are a given and the -10ER is likely and that the 748I will be ordered(ruling out the 380 I presume?). The 330 also looks to be out given your information. Sounds like a near clean sweep or total clean sweep to Boeing here, if this information is correct

[BOEING777]

The only reason the -1000 is in the frame is if the 787-10ER doesnt make it to the skies. Both will be in service in less than a year of each other. I wouldnt yet rule out the A380- but Airbus has to do more than pull out the stops to get any wins here- discounts are not enough- as I mentioned before, the A380 is useless to BA if it cant operate into airports BA serves with 777's.

Hence why any 747-8I order will be smaller than LH's, and the bigger fleet will consist of twins.

[Ben Jones]

^

FWIW, A330's have never been on BA's agenda because of the total inferiority to the 777's it operates. Also, the numbers may also rise significantly for a 787-sized order from 20 to 35 or more with a similar number of convertable options. The 787-8 and -9 are all but guaranteed with the -10ER to follow once launched.

The 10 777 options are now pitched to go the W's way, to allow the first batch of 5-7 747-400's to be phased out. The 747-8I will be ordered in similar numbers to LH, albeit with few options. The XWB1000 has been put on hold indefinitely as the Board now does not rule out a mixed widebody fleet- a first for the carrier. But this again depends on the XWB EIS and whether or not Airbus can deliver.

I'll update as I get more news

Is there any rough timeframe when we can expect the deals to be all tied up...?

[BOEING777]

^

'Fraid not Ben. The most likely scenario is that the 777 and 787 will be announced this year. Perhaps at Paris- I suspect, in the 747-8I case, theres no immediate rush to order, since EIS isnt till 2010, and aside the 4 VIP -8's, theres only the LH planes ahead in the pax queue (Freighters aside). I would assume theres sufficient capacity to ramp up 747 production circa 2009/10, and BA will probably hang on for another 10-16 months to see who also joins the -8I list before committing to it.

[Aurora]

I would assume theres sufficient capacity to ramp up 747 production circa 2009/10, and BA will probably hang on for another 10-16 months to see who also joins the -8I list before committing to it.

Then they may wait too long. Nothing to stop China Airlines, Cathay Pacific, or (gasp!) United Airlines, from jumping ahead in the queue.

[Jacobin777]

^

FWIW, A330's have never been on BA's agenda because of the total inferiority to the 777's it operates. Also, the numbers may also rise significantly for a 787-sized order from 20 to 35 or more with a similar number of convertable options. The 787-8 and -9 are all but guaranteed with the -10ER to follow once launched.

The 10 777 options are now pitched to go the W's way, to allow the first batch of 5-7 747-400's to be phased out. The 747-8I will be ordered in similar numbers to LH, albeit with few options. The XWB1000 has been put on hold indefinitely as the Board now does not rule out a mixed widebody fleet- a first for the carrier. But this again depends on the XWB EIS and whether or not Airbus can deliver.

I'll update as I get more news

Thanks for the updates BOEING777.... keep 'em coming.....

Man is the suspense going to get to me on this order......BA definitely need a fleet replacement...I flew LHR-DXB/KWI-LHR last week on their -200ER's and they are getting mighty old in the tooth..

I still don't see BA going with the XWB, especially if (when) Boeing launch the 787-10.....I do expect to see potentially a dozen or so A380's, but waaaay down the road..certainly not in this RFP.....

[Stratoliner777]

Hmmm, looks like 787-10 vs. A350-1000....and mixed fleet!? egads! But there may be a knockout blow from the 787-10...

I think the A380 seems possible...

But then again the 747-8I seems like a more versatile and flexible VLA fit.

This post has been edited by Stratoliner777: Jan 14 2007, 07:39 PM

[longreach]

Here's my interpretation of the info supplied by Boeing777 so far:

787-8/-9/-10 order very likely.

777 purchase rights now likely to be 773ER(this one seems to change regularly).

A330 unlikely to be ordered by BA, as rated inferior to 777 for BA's purposes.

748I likely to be ordered, but the door is still open for the A350-1000.

Unlikely to be an all Airbus order.

Will be all Boeing(787/773ER/748I) or split with possibly the 350-1000/380 getting some of the business.

777/787 likely to be ordered this year, VLA component in the next 10-16 months.

Gotta be looking good for a Boeing cleansweep here IMO. Interesting that Boeing777 has mentioned the 788 here(I wonder if BA are looking at the vacant 2010-12 SU/LY slots???), when most info I've read about this RFP has the 788 as being too small and they were looking more at the 789/-10.

[SthPacific787]

Gotta be looking good for a Boeing cleansweep here IMO. Interesting that Boeing777 has mentioned the 788 here(I wonder if BA are looking at the vacant 2010-12 SU/LY slots???), when most info I've read about this RFP has the 788 as being too small and they were looking more at the 789/-10.

I belive the 788 is larger and more capable than the 763 so maybe that's the target, not to mention the 757s that will have to be replaced as well at some point. Maybe down the track after the 789's (when and if) are ordered.

[JayinKitsap]

My prediction for the BA order will be:

10 773ER + 0 options
20 787 with it being 10 -8 and 10 -9 + options on 20 more (options valid on the -10 also)
8 747-8I + 6 options

This gets their slots reserved on all lines for the immediate need with a reasonable cap on capital outlay.

However, it clearly doesn't satisfy all of their needs but it will allow them to judge for themselves the actual performance of the 380 and 350XWB.

I actually think many airlines will do the SQ thing of ordering WB's from both, just to keep two mfg's in the market. It also increases the selection of which aircraft is best for a given route. Just as the 330 is a strong contender in the medium range I would bet that the 350XWB will have specific missions where it is clearly the best.

However, it will be 3 to 5 years before the actual performance of the 380 is really known and the 350XWB more years beyond that.

ps- no inside info on this - just my best estimation of what would work well for BA at this time.

[CXBoi]

We shouldn't fall for everything Saj says, he's almost as bad as Freddie when it comes to Boeing bias. Would love to know where the no-A330 info came from .

I cant see why BA would order the A350-1000 if they ordered the 77W but then again I have a <50% accuracy rate so I am more than likely wrong. I'm with SthPacific787 and am gonna say Boeing clean sweep.

[BOEING777]

Gotta be looking good for a Boeing cleansweep here IMO. Interesting that Boeing777 has mentioned the 788 here(I wonder if BA are looking at the vacant 2010-12 SU/LY slots???), when most info I've read about this RFP has the 788 as being too small and they were looking more at the 789/-10.

The -8 is being evaluated in lieu of replacing both 757 and 767 operations out of LGW and LHR, with a view to allocating a batch at MAN too. As you rightly mention, with a handful of slots available between 2010/12, it will/could give BA swift access to the 787 after EIS.

We shouldn't fall for everything Saj says, he's almost as bad as Freddie when it comes to Boeing bias. Would love to know where the no-A330 info came from .

While Ive never once stated that my sources or indeed information is concrete, BA is not interested in the A330 because its yesterdays airplane. If in the dubious events that it goes down the Airbus route and emulates and SQ type deal, then A330's would only be leased, not purchased. As Ive oft stated before, BA is far more inclined to offer and misuse its 777-200ER's with 4 classes than lose out premium traffic on a 2 class A332 or shorter range A333 with 3 classes while punishing its own freight operations. The A330 cant do range, pax and freight like the -200ER can.

[Jacobin777]

Gotta be looking good for a Boeing cleansweep here IMO. Interesting that Boeing777 has mentioned the 788 here(I wonder if BA are looking at the vacant 2010-12 SU/LY slots???), when most info I've read about this RFP has the 788 as being too small and they were looking more at the 789/-10.

The -8 is being evaluated in lieu of replacing both 757 and 767 operations out of LGW and LHR, with a view to allocating a batch at MAN too. As you rightly mention, with a handful of slots available between 2010/12, it will/could give BA swift access to the 787 after EIS.

We shouldn't fall for everything Saj says, he's almost as bad as Freddie when it comes to Boeing bias. Would love to know where the no-A330 info came from .

While Ive never once stated that my sources or indeed information is concrete, BA is not interested in the A330 because its yesterdays airplane. If in the dubious events that it goes down the Airbus route and emulates and SQ type deal, then A330's would only be leased, not purchased. As Ive oft stated before, BA is far more inclined to offer and misuse its 777-200ER's with 4 classes than lose out premium traffic on a 2 class A332 or shorter range A333 with 3 classes while punishing its own freight operations. The A330 cant do range, pax and freight like the -200ER can.

So you think its going to be a "cleansweep" for Boeing in this particular RFP? It seems to me as if the BA board aren't going to go Airbus right now for widebodies (especially when the -10 is offered)..maybe down the line with a few A380's on the next RFP.....

Cheers...

[BOEING777]

"Cleansweep" is a phrase Ive not used since Im not convinced BA will do a single large order of various airplanes. The likelihood is that the 777 options and 787 will be firmed up first, followed by a 747-8I order a year or more later.

[aschonland]

Anyone care to bet this deal is on ice now with strike threats?

[BOEING777]

If the strike goes ahead then yes. Otherwise, I see no reason for BA to postpone their plans on fleet renewal. The pilots were the bigger headache, and theyve been won over. Cabin crew are another kettle of fish that can be replaced with temporary, non union workers

[Aurora]

If the strike goes ahead then yes.

Even if the strike proceeds, BA needs to secure delivery positions. I suspect 2007 will be "last call" for delivery positions through 2013--from both OEMs!

[Jacobin777]

"Cleansweep" is a phrase Ive not used since Im not convinced BA will do a single large order of various airplanes. The likelihood is that the 777 options and 787 will be firmed up first, followed by a 747-8I order a year or more later.

Sounds like a "cleansweep" to me..I know some here believe that since Walsh is an A/B man, A/B will get some orders too..however....when Walsh was with Air Lingus, A/B gave them the better deal with Boeing and also, the BA board is basically Boeing committed, especially Walsh's boss, Chairman Martin Broughton...

Of course, it will boil down to who provides the better plane with the better deal...

Cheers..

[CXBoi]

While Ive never once stated that my sources or indeed information is concrete, BA is not interested in the A330 because its yesterdays airplane.

*SOUND OF BUZZER* I'm sorry that was the wrong answer as its all unsubstantiated gobble-dee-goop!



HOWEVER I totally agree with the rest of said statement.

v

If in the dubious events that it goes down the Airbus route and emulates and SQ type deal, then A330's would only be leased, not purchased. As Ive oft stated before, BA is far more inclined to offer and misuse its 777-200ER's with 4 classes than lose out premium traffic on a 2 class A332 or shorter range A333 with 3 classes while punishing its own freight operations. The A330 cant do range, pax and freight like the -200ER can.

[BOEING777]

Feck me CXBoi, you are are hard person to please! LOL
At least you shared some sentiment with my aforementioned quote!

[longreach]

Fresh from Reuters:

LONDON, Jan 17 (Reuters) - British Airways (BAY.L: Quote, Profile , Research) hopes to place new aircraft orders this year, a spokeswoman said after the Times reported the carrier would spend 15 billion pounds ($29.49 billion) over 15 years on up to 135 long-haul planes.

"We have not yet given a definitive number of aircraft," the spokeswoman said late on Wednesday in response to the article.

"We hope to be placing orders in 2007."

The Times, in its Thursday edition, said BA would spend 1 billion pounds a year over 15 years to renew its ageing fleet.

The firm was also thinking about using Airbus, the European aircraft maker owned by EADS (EAD.PA: Quote, Profile , Research), planes to replace its current long-haul portfolio of aircraft by Boeing (BA.N: Quote, Profile , Research) of the United States, the newspaper said, citing unnamed BA executives.

BA hoped to announce the new order in about three months, according to the Times.

The spokeswoman said there was competition for the work.

"The competition continues. It is very competitive between Airbus and Boeing," she added.

Maybe this order could be bigger than expected(ala QF that committed to up to 115 787s to get the best deal), or it could be indicative that the order process will be a stepped . Possible decision within 3 months is a bit earlier than I expected.

[BOEING777]

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,5-2553123.html

The Times January 18, 2007
Aircraft rivals vie for £15bn as BA gets out its wallet

David Robertson, Business Correspondent

British Airways is planning to spend £1 billion a year over the next 15 years to update its ageing fleet, The Times has learnt.

The massive order for up to 135 long-haul aircraft, which BA hopes to announce in about three months, has triggered an aggressive bidding war between Boeing, of the US, and Airbus, its European rival. The Franco-German aircraft manufacturer is understood to be offering substantial discounts on the list prices of its airliners to cover the cost of retraining BA pilots and engineers.

Historically, BA’s long-haul fleet has been exclusively Boeing — mainly the 747 and the 777 — but senior executives have told The Times that the airline is considering shifting to an all-Airbus fleet.

BA has even altered its view on the A380 in a move that could provide an enormous boost for Airbus’s troubled superjumbo project. The airline rejected the A380 seven years ago when it was launched, saying that the aircraft did not fit with its plans. However, growth in the airline market could now make the A380 viable, BA executives said.

[Jacobin777]

The only "all Airbus" I see in BA's fleet is for their short-haul fleet where they will go with A319's, A320's, and A321's....

[BOEING777]

The so called BA "senior execs" can make all the noise they like about switching an entire fleet from one to the other. Its what the BA BOD does that counts

[nikkei_225]

Looks like Airbus is ploying the same tactic it used in the past to win orders from all-Boeing customers.

The Franco-German aircraft maker is understood to be offering big discounts on the list prices of its airliners to cover the cost of retraining BA pilots and engineers.

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story...4-23349,00.html

[BOEING777]

It wont work IMHO. The issue of BALPA and other smaller BA unions will see that it doesnt happen- the last thing pilots will want is an across the board Airbus CCQ that leads to lower salaries.

[Jacobin777]

It wont work IMHO. The issue of BALPA and other smaller BA unions will see that it doesnt happen- the last thing pilots will want is an across the board Airbus CCQ that leads to lower salaries.

That's one argument I've made on the 'other' board.....Given that Airbus is willing to give "substantial" discounts to BA for cross-training purposes (in other words for the pilots from switching from Boeing to Airbus) leads one to believe this might be a bigger problem than most realise.....

[BOEING777]

Airbus can make all the discounts it likes- it does nothing to placate the carrier who then has to fight tooth and nail to keep its best staff.