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BOEING777
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...&refer=home

QUOTE
By Robert Fenner

Nov. 27 (Bloomberg) -- Qantas Airways Ltd., Australia’s largest carrier, may further cut passenger capacity or defer orders of new planes if the global recession continues to reduce demand for air travel.

Planes may be grounded and more international routes can be cut, Alan Joyce, who takes over as chief executive officer tomorrow, said in an interview today. The company’s domestic sales are helping to “insulate” earnings from the drop in international revenue, he said.

Qantas eliminated 10 percent of international seats this week as it forecast profit will drop 64 percent as the global recession erodes business-class travel demand. Joyce, who is scheduled to receive the first of 115 Boeing Co. 787 aircraft next year, may have deliveries delayed by six months because of strikes at the Chicago-based manufacturer.

“While we wouldn’t want to do it, the 787 is so far delayed that our contract allows us to walk away from it,” Joyce, 42, said in the interview. “We still want to take the 787 and we plan to take them, but we do have options with them.”

Qantas shares rose 18 cents, or 8.3 percent, to A$2.35 at the 4:10 p.m. close of trading in Sydney, paring this year’s decline to 57 percent. The benchmark S&P/ASX 200 index rose 1.4 percent.

Joyce, who takes over from the retiring Geoff Dixon, expects the aviation market to have recovered by the time the first 787 is delivered.

Forecast Cut

After accepting its first Airbus SAS A380 plane in September, Qantas has secured funding for two more of the superjumbos due for delivery before the end of the year. The airline has a firm order for 20 of the aircraft with an option to buy four more.

“We won’t exercise those four options until circumstances change,” he said.

Qantas said Nov. 25 that 2009 pretax earnings may fall 64 percent to about A$500 million from A$1.4 billion a year earlier. On Aug. 22 the airline predicted 2009 earnings this year of A$751 million.
Falcon
QUOTE
“While we wouldn’t want to do it, the 787 is so far delayed that our contract allows us to walk away from it,” Joyce, 42, said in the interview. “We still want to take the 787 and we plan to take them, but we do have options with them.”


I guess this is very representative for all 787 customers. They have the right but they will take delivery of everything firm. Options on the other hand are much more likely not to be firmed and since almost every 4th slot is an option they will help move up deliveries and provide early deliveries for new customers.
chaser
QUOTE (Falcon @ Nov 27 2008, 03:20 PM) *
QUOTE
"While we wouldn't want to do it, the 787 is so far delayed that our contract allows us to walk away from it," Joyce, 42, said in the interview. "We still want to take the 787 and we plan to take them, but we do have options with them."


I guess this is very representative for all 787 customers. They have the right but they will take delivery of everything firm. Options on the other hand are much more likely not to be firmed and since almost every 4th slot is an option they will help move up deliveries and provide early deliveries for new customers.


Not sure I agree with your idea.
There are around 900 firm orders, IMHO, options follow on once firm commitments have been fulfilled.
Falcon
QUOTE (chaser @ Nov 27 2008, 02:37 AM) *
Not sure I agree with your idea.
There are around 900 firm orders, IMHO, options follow on once firm commitments have been fulfilled.

While they certainly are back heavy they are not after all firm orders placed. Many of AA's slots are supposedly from options not firmed up.
Stitch
I would not be surprised if a number of 787-8 customers are now considering converting at least some of their orders to 787-9s. Fewer planes with higher capacities, but similar overall trip costs, are probably the future.
kimshep
QUOTE (BOEING777 @ Nov 27 2008, 05:50 PM) *
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...&refer=home

QUOTE
By Robert Fenner

Qantas eliminated 10 percent of international seats this week as it forecast profit will drop 64 percent as the global recession erodes business-class travel demand.


I'm sorry, but the above quote from Bloomberg is patently incorrect. Qantas did announce cuts last week, but they were no where near "10 percent of international seats". In fact, what was announced were cuts that would free up to 10 aircraft - and remember, QF's current fleet is approximately 220 aircraft. A number of cuts will be made to both LAX and LHR (naturally, since the A380 is being introduced on these routes), as well as HNL services (which may well see further penetration from Jetstar International) .. and on domestic B767-300ER services.

For those who wish to see Bloomberg's error, please refer here :
http://www.qantas.com.au/regions/dyn/au/pu...2008/nov08/3858

QUOTE ('Qantas Web Site')
The Chief Executive Officer of Qantas, Mr Geoff Dixon, said that in addition to capacity cuts announced earlier this year, Qantas would reduce capacity equivalent to grounding 10 aircraft.

"By taking this action now we will have the flexibility to switch growth back on as soon as market conditions improve. <snip>

Mr Dixon said Qantas would manage the capacity cuts by:
* not taking up the planned lease of two A330-200 aircraft;
* changing the flying patterns of existing aircraft to free up the equivalent of six B747-400s, three B767-300s and one A320-200 aircraft between now and mid-2010; and
* halt all planned domestic market growth for Qantas and Jetstar.

"Our actual flying in the next six months will be four per cent below the equivalent period in 2008," he said.

He also said Qantas would not be increasing its previously announced reduction of 1,500 jobs.


Bold highlighting courtesy of [kimshep].

In fact, the arrival of the first A380-800 on the LAX route has already allowed the freeing up of 1 x B747-438ER which began service on the 3 x weekly new SYD-EZE-SYD nonstop, which commenced service last Monday (24 November).

Further, the prospect of Qantas cancelling it's B787 orders, based on the above, is absolutely and totally ludicrous. It would take further Boeing delivery delays pushing the B787 EIS out past the A350 to cause QF to cancel, IMO. However, I would not rule out some further hard-assed QF 're-negotiation' on pricing - based on delivery delays, already confirmed and any that might ensue. QF management is a master at taking advantage of supplier 'fvck-ups', as we all know.

Bloomberg : please get it "right".
Jet Blast
Qantas is getting closer to deferring the 787. (blue my emphasis)

http://business.smh.com.au/business/odds-o...90327-9e4v.html


QUOTE
PRESSURE is building on Qantas to defer deliveries of the Boeing 787 Dreamliner aircraft to avoid having to tap the sharemarket again to keep its investment-grade credit rating.

Facing the worst downturn in travel in years, the airline could also be forced to inject up to $200 million into its superannuation scheme because of a shortfall caused by investment losses.

Citi analysts have joined Merrill Lynch in forecasting the need for a cash injection into the super scheme.

Apart from cutting its dividend, deferring deliveries of aircraft is one way Qantas can avoid having to undertake another capital raising.

The Citi analysts estimate Qantas could save about $200 million a year if it cancelled half of its 787 orders, which are already two years behind schedule for delivery.

Qantas's chief executive, Alan Joyce, has repeatedly insisted it has options on the delivery of the more fuel-efficient 787 because of the repeated delays to delivery dates. "The 787 is so far delayed that our contract allows us to walk away from it," he said recently.

The Herald understands Qantas will begin negotiations with Boeing in the coming months about deferring the delivery of the first batch of 787s.

Qantas has the largest firm order, for 65 aircraft, of any airline with Boeing for the Dreamliner, and has purchase rights for another 50. Its low-cost subsidiary, Jetstar, is to receive the group's first Dreamliner. Delivery has been delayed until at least next year.

The Dreamliner has been seen as a key part of Qantas's $3 billion-a-year fleet renewal project. Delta Air Lines, the world's largest airline, has suggested it may not keep all of the orders for the Dreamliner it inherited from its merger with Northwest last year. Airlines in China are also reportedly working to renegotiate delivery of their first Dreamliners.

[...]



CXBoi
Those Whalejets are a noose around any airlines neck in a downturn. I am still not convinced that they are really necessary.
Jacobin777
QUOTE (CXBoi @ Mar 27 2009, 09:02 AM) *
Those Whalejets are a noose around any airlines neck in a downturn. I am still not convinced that they are really necessary.


According to a good friend of mine in the industry, TPAC to SFO/LAX from Australia is getting baaaad..and this is before DL and V.Australia....he states he wouldn't be surprised if UA pulls out of LAX-that's how bad their numbers are (DEN isn't doing well either).

I expect to see UA concentrate its effort in three locations:

1-SFO
2-ORD
3-IAD
BeauNG
QUOTE (Jacobin777 @ Mar 27 2009, 10:38 AM) *
[
According to a good friend of mine in the industry, TPAC to SFO/LAX from Australia is getting baaaad..

What does TPAC stand for?
kimshep
TPAC = TransPacific.

Jacobin777 : Depends on what you call, or how you interpret "baaad" ? Qantas has, and still maintains, the lion's share of the market on Australia - West Coast USA and vv.

Yes, I agree that over the last few months (post Christmas / January) passenger numbers have fallen somewhat, due to inordinantly (and unrealistically) high fares - often topping out at AUD $2,400 for SYD-LAX-SYD, which has traditionally been a AU$ 1,600 - 1,800 market.

However, two elements are sustaining QF's USA market growth right now : first, the emergence of highly advantageous - but time-limited - "promotional" fares aimed at trimming V Australia's and Delta's double assault on the routes. As a comment : SYD-LAX-SYD could be had for AU$ 968 last week and today, SYD-LAX-JFK return can be had for AUD$ 2.00 more than the LAX fare ! Forward bookings for QF are strong, due to these initiatives .. even if revenue and yield is reduced somewhat because of the lower fare structure. Yes, that theoretically impacts profit .. but then, Qantas now has the advantage of a 20% CASM saving courtesy of the A380, which helps it soften the blow.

Second, is the allure of the A380-800 services on SYD-LAX which is doing very well in clawing business from incumbent UAL. Loads on the A380 have been better for QF than they have been on equivalent B747-438 services and the frame is maintaining it's popularity with both Aussie and American travellers.

If you look back over the last few years, I've been saying consistently that Qantas should inevitably be able to reduce fares with the introduction and emergence of the A380 services. Indeed, that is the 'raisson-de-etre' that the craft was purchased. Right now, you are seeing QF being able to better weather the fare storm - against it's competitors - due to the introduction of this frame.

Certainly, the economic downturn is being felt on these global routes - just as it is elsewhere - but Qantas is managing to 'hold it's own' during these tough times. I could point quite easily to a post I made last week showing that apart from DL's initial first week of operation in July, bookings for the DL SYD service past that initial introduction are looking very sparse. The same is true, to a lesser degree, at V Australia.

I have previously ruminated that UAL is in an invidious position in all this competition .. and that it could conceivably be the first to go from TransPac - should numbers come to a crunching halt. However, since the global economy (over the past 2-3 weeks) seems to be improving somewhat - however 'marginal' that may be - I'm prepared to conclude that UAL and others may well persevere with their efforts on the TransPac market, given their heavy investment in equipment and services.

Yes, the market may be particularly 'tough' for the next 12-18 months and competition may be fierce - but the potential is there in the form of passengers and revenue. All that is needed is the 'lightening' of economic gloom.

It is a fact that - while all areas of the globe are experiencing a downturn in traffic - that 'downturn' has been smallest (percentage-wise) in the Australian market. If you doubt that .. there are some fascinating points that illustrate it's strength as a market :

(Domestically)
- the QF 'two-brand' strategy (QF and JQ) continues to work efficiently .. and more importantly, profitably
- JQ continues on it's unabashed growth pattern
- while both QF and DJ have cut capacity, these cuts have been comparitively minor, compared to US and Europe

(Internationally)
- the likes of EK, SQ and some others are only being held aloft / profitable by their gateway Australian access
- new entrants flooding the market, trying to cut into profitability ie: V Australia, Delta, Qatar
- existing carriers 'upping' frequency ie: EK, EY, AirAsia, AirAsiaX, CX (although CX is now 'revising')

In short, the Australian market has not stopped travelling - it is simply in a temproary 'hiatus' .. while assessing how economies will adapt (shrink, gorw or standstill). Have no fear - the global market will return - it's just a case of seeing how long it will take - and how strong growth will be.
kimshep
QUOTE (CXBoi @ Mar 28 2009, 03:02 AM) *
Those Whalejets are a noose around any airlines neck in a downturn. I am still not convinced that they are really necessary.


Sorry to take a 'cheap' shot, CXBoi - but I'd be rather more concerned about carriers that have cast their lot with excessive cargo fleets in a downturn.

While SQ's profit has rapidly declined and shrunk horrendously, it is still in profit mode. The same is defiantly true of Qantas, which emerged last year with a record profit and is still seeing the prospects of a half billion dollar profit this year. A rareity at virtually all other carriers. At EK, as a non-listed entity, the prospects aren't quite so clear .. but doesn't it strike you as "odd" that the troika of A380 operators are the backbone of the few gobal carriers that are actually achieving profitability ?
kimshep
QUOTE (Jet Blast @ Mar 28 2009, 01:31 AM) *
Qantas is getting closer to deferring the 787. (blue my emphasis)

http://business.smh.com.au/business/odds-o...90327-9e4v.html

QUOTE
The Herald understands Qantas will begin negotiations with Boeing in the coming months about deferring the delivery of the first batch of 787s.


I wouldn't be too concerned about 'deferrals' of the first 50. Irrespective of what happens, these first 50 frames will be needed asap for the delayed expansion of JQ International (15 frames) - paradoxically caused by the B787 delivery delay and the need for Qantas to replace it's rapidly ageing fleet of B767-300ER's, which are used extensively on domestic routes.

Now, to the question of the second tranche of options held by QF ~ that could be another matter entirely. But then 'deferrals' are preferable to 'cancellations', right ?
Stitch
I expect QF is likely better off with the A380 in that they can reduce frequencies without as deeply cutting capacity. Especially on a route like USA-Australia where you have narrow departure and arrival windows so your frequencies are spread out over a period of a few hours, so you're not really inconveniencing anyone.

Also, with break-even loads on an A380 smaller then a 747-400 in terms of actual passenger counts, if you are seeing a drop in traffic, an A380-800 will still make money at loads lower then a 747-400 will.

SQ and EK do have the advantage of operating 777-300ERs which have even lower break-evens then the A380, so they can both down gauge even more if they have to to maintain profitability on a route, but QF tends to not fly those kinds of routes with 747s or A380s so they should still be okay.
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