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kimshep
Article : Courtesy 'The Sydney Morning Herald' under Fair Use poicy
Link : http://business.smh.com.au/business/boeing...90101-78f5.html

QUOTE ('The Sydney Morning Herald')
Boeing Shelves Plan For B737 Replacement

Matt O'Sullivan
January 2, 2009

THE workhorse of Australia's domestic airline industry, the Boeing 737, is set to dominate skies until well into the next two decades as its US manufacturer puts on the backburner plans to develop a more fuel-efficient replacement for the aircraft.

The manufacturer told Bloomberg yesterday that it was studying new "product enhancements" because replacement plans for the 737 aircraft have been delayed toward the end of the next decade.

It is the strongest indication yet that Boeing will stick with the 737, the world's most widely flown aircraft, despite having worked on research for a replacement for years.

The US manufacturer is also likely to be less inclined to move quickly towards finding a replacement because the 737 remains a top seller.

Trumpeted as the "best-selling jet airline of all time", Boeing has delivered almost 6000 737s since they began rolling off production lines in 1967.

The manufacturer has also been embarrassed by repeated delays to its Dreamliner 787 program, of which Qantas is the second-largest customer.

However, the prospect of the 737 remaining the backbone of airline fleets around the world for years to come will dampen the hopes of the environmental movement that the industry can greatly reduce carbon emissions.

It will also be of concern to airlines conscious of the need for more fuel efficient aircraft over the next decade to ensure their profitability. Despite a sudden drop in oil prices over the past five months, higher jet fuel prices are set to dog the industry in the longer term.

The magazine Aviation and the Environment has cited sources saying Boeing is considering a "bridge" model for the 737 that would burn 10 per cent less fuel until a replacement aircraft is pressed into service.

Boeing has never given a timetable for a replacement or what its specifications would be. The 737 is still Qantas's favoured aircraft, making up almost a third of the group's fleet of about 224 planes across its domestic and international operations.

The airline plans to buy up to 188 narrow bodied aircraft for its short-haul fleet over the next decade for routes in Australia and Asia.

Qantas has firm orders for 31 737-800s, and an option for 49 more. Boeing's rival Airbus will provide the rest; the airline has firm orders for 68 A320 and A321 aircraft, and an option for 40 more.

Virgin Blue's fleet is also highly reliant on the 737s - including 22 737-700s and 38 737-800s - and it is due to take delivery of a further 19 737-800s by 2013.
Aurora
Without the next generation in power plants, both OEMs will concentrate on improvements. It simply isn't worth developing a new airframe at this point. Airbus is currently evaluating winglets on the A320.
BeauNG
QUOTE (Aurora @ Jan 1 2009, 02:16 PM) *
Without the next generation in power plants, both OEMs will concentrate on improvements. It simply isn't worth developing a new airframe at this point.


QUOTE
Among the possibilities being explored is the placement of a scaled-up version of a P&W GTF engine on the aircraft. This would necessitate a massive structural change of the 737, with the introduction of a new wing, taller landing gear and a redesigned wingbox. Boeing is also looking at CFM's LEAP-X engine.

A new avionics system seems likely, in which RNP would come as standard. A range of internal systems improvements are being considered, which would make building and maintaining the aircraft easier.

The combined fuel burn improvement of these measures could be as much as ten per cent.
BOEING777
QUOTE
Among the possibilities being explored is the placement of a scaled-up version of a P&W GTF engine on the aircraft. This would necessitate a massive structural change of the 737, with the introduction of a new wing, taller landing gear and a redesigned wingbox.


...and you can bet your ass the Europeans will kick up a fuss if such changes were ever to be certified using grandfather rights...

Such changes would cost several billion dollars, and in the same way, the 747-500X/-600X had similar proposed changes from the 747-400 that ultimately led to them being cancelled due to cost overruns. For a 10% efficiency gain while the global economy is in the can, such changes are not worth it, particularly if you aim to supplant that revised model with an all new design around a decade later.

CFM will probably introduce some engine improvements while lighter cabin fittings and material changes will bring down OEW and fuel burn, but given the current climate, I dont see such major changes to the 737, particularly when sales are strong, deferrals will ensue in '09 and quite simply, the "need" is far from pressing.
Stitch
Pretty much agreed. Replacing older 737 Classics and MD-8x aircraft with 737NG's and A320s will bring significant fuel savings to airlines. Yes, those are the models airlines are ridding themselves of first as they draw-down their capacity (just as they shelved 737 Ancients and 727s during the economic downturn at the start of this decade), but eventually they will need to add capacity back and they won't do it with older equipment, but instead will buy new 737NGs and A320s at that time just as they did from 2005-2007.
keesje
I would not read to much into Boeings (or Airbus') comments regarding a new NB generation.

They don't want to put the money in it. They have other priorities at this moment. "At this moment" is crusial I think.

When Airbus decides to continue to follow the road to a A320NG and get a few substantial orders:
http://i191.photobucket.com/albums/z160/ke...pg?t=1231853923

If the CSeries takes off & Bombardier starts testing the water for a evolutionairy C150 stretch:
http://i191.photobucket.com/albums/z160/ke...pg?t=1231854034

qnd OAk does something similar with a 150 seat Superjet
http://i191.photobucket.com/albums/z160/ke...pg?t=1231854102

Loyal Boeing customers will start asking themsleves if investing in new 737NG fleet is still the best thing to do. At that moment I won't matter what Boeing said or didn't say in the past. They'll do what is necessary to protect their market share in the big, unloyal NB segment. That moment can come sooner then they hope.
BOEING777
QUOTE (keesje @ Jan 13 2009, 01:46 PM) *
Loyal Boeing customers will start asking themsleves if investing in new 737NG fleet is still the best thing to do.


"Loyal Airbus customers will start asking themselves if investing in new A32X fleet is still the best thing to do."

Bottom line is that neither manufacturer is going to rush with an all new airplane.

Why you seem to allude the 737 is any worse off than the A320 is hilarious, particularly when a quick look across both portfolio's, its Airbus that has more customers than Boeing does sporting junk credit ratings - a key fact you conveniently and always omit. shifty.gif
Stitch
The A320NG is adding a number of nice features and technologies, but Boeing has had many of them on the 737NG for years, in some cases.

This might help explain why those "loyal Boeing customers" are indeed loyal to Boeing... hug.gif
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