QUOTE (Kevin_M @ Jan 25 2009, 08:01 PM)

Can someone elaborate on what failure in the automobile industry means to the Airline industry on a nuts and bolts level?
I am not sure if you are asking regarding airlines (commercial carriers) or air frame manufacturers. First, for manufacturing: Fundementally, the two inustries are tied at many levels. On a basic material level, lets say iron ore and bauxite, there are economic ties. Many companies which produce castings for for aircraft also produce auto and truck parts. If your customer base diminishes in either, the supply and efficiency curve of producing parts diminishes equally, meaning that you now have losses even if you can garner a higher price (in-and-of-itself an ulikely scenario), because the reduction on overall plant or business volume is so decreased. Other parallels can be drawn using the tire, rubber, electronics, shipping, logistics, interior (seats, etc.) glass and many other industries.
In terms of airlines, this is tied to the overall volume of business being conducted as well as the willinglness of the masses to engage in leisure travel. First, if 6% of the economy is tied to auto manufacturing, and it is slumping, there is little reason for someone to get on a plane and travel to provide service, support, etc., to the auto sector. Secondly, cash-strapped and unemployed auto workers (by some estimates, this could be as high as 29 million people across all related aut industires in North America) are likely to save their money as opposed to spending it on a trip to Disney Worls or Havanna.
One more AB article. It would seem the French are backstopping in the same way, let's say, the Fed is doing for GE.
Propping Up Airbus Won't Be Easy
Lionel Laurent, 01.26.09, 9:05 AM ET LONDON -
The French government is flying in with financial supplies to help European plane-maker Airbus cope with the economic crisis. According to the office of Finance Minister Christine Lagarde, the aid will consist of 5 billion euros ($6.5 billion) in state guarantees to help Airbus customers get financing for their purchases. The problem is that the laws of supply and demand can't always bend to the French government's will.
With many airlines unwilling to buy new planes in the current environment, as fewer consumers take to the skies, the French government's measure is unlikely to create demand out of thin air. Instead it should function more as a safety net, helping out customers that don't want to cancel their existing orders but still need help raising the money to pay for them.
And the success of that safety net will also depend on the effectiveness of state guarantees as a perceived master key to unlock lending. The French government followed Britain in bailing out its banking sector a second time earlier this month, offering more capital and state guarantees to try and revive lending. Given that the first round of initiatives last year was also designed to loosen up lending, it is hard to feel confident that this will be a magic bullet.
"If banks weren't lending even when there were state guarantees, is adding extra state guarantees likely to increase marginal lending?" remarked Nick Cunningham, an analyst with Evolution Securities. "It's by no means conclusive that this is the solution to the problem."
Shares of Airbus parent European Aeronautic Defense and Space gained 1.0%, to 12.72 euros ($16.49), during midday trading in Paris on Monday. Arch-rival Boeing slipped 0.7% on Friday, to $41.98, in New York.
Cunningham added that the rapid fall in expected worldwide aircraft orders, which Airbus Chief Executive Thomas Enders said could decline by 50.0%-60.0% in 2009, meant that the economic crisis was hurting the aerospace sector at a faster rate than feared.
Aerospace consultant Doug McVitie was more sanguine about the effect of the crisis, and told Forbes that after three blowout years the industry was still in a relative comfort zone. "If the economic crisis doesn't last too long, I'm sure demand will pick up again," he said.