QUOTE ('The Sydney Morning Herald')
Forty Years On, It's All Downhill For The Jumbo
Boeing 747
February 9, 2009
There is no birthday cake for Boeing's 747, just a question mark over its future, writes Scott Rochfort.
Turning 40 is not expected to be a pleasant experience for the Boeing 747 jumbo, which will mark the anniversary of its maiden test flight today with none of the fanfare its arrival stirred in the same year man first landed on the moon.
There will be no public festivities to mark the snowy morning on February 9, 1969 when the jet first took off from Paine Field near Boeing's Everett plant north of Seattle.
"We will be marking it internally," a Boeing spokesman, Tim Bader, told the Herald. Some in the airline industry are now wondering whether these commemorations for the jet that revolutionised long-haul travel in the 1970s - particularly for Australians - may resemble a wake.
First sections of the fuselage and wings of the 747's newer and bigger freighter version sit in the Boeing plant, but the jet's last passenger version may well have rolled off the production line. The last passenger 747 was delivered in 2005, and only six freighter versions of the jet will be rolled out this year.
When Boeing revealed a fortnight ago that it had incurred a $US685 million ($1 billion) one-off loss on the development of the more fuel efficient 747-8, due for delivery from next year, the chief executive, Jim McNerney, provided his strongest hint yet the future of the jet may be under threat if there were any further setbacks.
"When you add it all up we still see a viable business proposition here," Mr McNerney told an analyst briefing.
"Now, obviously, if we ever got to the point where we didn't, we'd have to work with our customers to come up with a different answer."
Faced with a new rival in the large jet market, Airbus's A380, and a stalling order book, some believe the passenger version of the 747 is already a relic. The bulk of Boeing's 747-8 order book is for the freighter version of the jet.
Lufthansa, which ordered 20 of the newer jets in late 2006, remains the only airline customer for the passenger Boeing 747-8 Intercontinental. They are due for delivery in 2011. The jet will be 5.6 metres longer and be able to seat 51 passengers more than existing 747s.
Apart from eight orders from VIP clients, the only other clear buyer may be the US President, Barack Obama, who will soon need to order a replacement for Air Force One.
Already faced with delays to its 787 Dreamliner program and a downturn in the aviation sector, Boeing may soon be faced with some very tough decisions.
CAPA Consulting's Ian Thomas is one who has grave doubts about the 747's future, given the ability of jets such as the Boeing 777 and Airbus A340 to fly longer distances.
"The mid-range aircraft certainly have more range value now," he said. Airlines such as Qantas have gravitated to mid-range jets because of the flexibility they allow in deploying the fleet to match market conditions.
For instance, it is expected Qantas and Jetstar's yet-to-be-delivered 787 Dreamliners will be used on domestic routes, regional flights into Asia and for long-haul services to Europe and the US. Qantas has 65 787s on order.
"Certainly the 747 performed a more than useful function," Mr Thomas said. It was the only jet up to the task of cost-effective long-haul flights when it began flying.
Qantas has taken delivery of 57 jumbos since 1971, making it the sixth biggest buyer of the jet. But it has 20 A380s on order and is looking to use the Boeing 787 as the new backbone of its international fleet, so the future of the 747 in the fleet does not look bright.
Qantas retired the last of its ageing 747-300s last month and is expected to phase its 30 747-400s out of service in the next decade.
Boeing 747
February 9, 2009
There is no birthday cake for Boeing's 747, just a question mark over its future, writes Scott Rochfort.
Turning 40 is not expected to be a pleasant experience for the Boeing 747 jumbo, which will mark the anniversary of its maiden test flight today with none of the fanfare its arrival stirred in the same year man first landed on the moon.
There will be no public festivities to mark the snowy morning on February 9, 1969 when the jet first took off from Paine Field near Boeing's Everett plant north of Seattle.
"We will be marking it internally," a Boeing spokesman, Tim Bader, told the Herald. Some in the airline industry are now wondering whether these commemorations for the jet that revolutionised long-haul travel in the 1970s - particularly for Australians - may resemble a wake.
First sections of the fuselage and wings of the 747's newer and bigger freighter version sit in the Boeing plant, but the jet's last passenger version may well have rolled off the production line. The last passenger 747 was delivered in 2005, and only six freighter versions of the jet will be rolled out this year.
When Boeing revealed a fortnight ago that it had incurred a $US685 million ($1 billion) one-off loss on the development of the more fuel efficient 747-8, due for delivery from next year, the chief executive, Jim McNerney, provided his strongest hint yet the future of the jet may be under threat if there were any further setbacks.
"When you add it all up we still see a viable business proposition here," Mr McNerney told an analyst briefing.
"Now, obviously, if we ever got to the point where we didn't, we'd have to work with our customers to come up with a different answer."
Faced with a new rival in the large jet market, Airbus's A380, and a stalling order book, some believe the passenger version of the 747 is already a relic. The bulk of Boeing's 747-8 order book is for the freighter version of the jet.
Lufthansa, which ordered 20 of the newer jets in late 2006, remains the only airline customer for the passenger Boeing 747-8 Intercontinental. They are due for delivery in 2011. The jet will be 5.6 metres longer and be able to seat 51 passengers more than existing 747s.
Apart from eight orders from VIP clients, the only other clear buyer may be the US President, Barack Obama, who will soon need to order a replacement for Air Force One.
Already faced with delays to its 787 Dreamliner program and a downturn in the aviation sector, Boeing may soon be faced with some very tough decisions.
CAPA Consulting's Ian Thomas is one who has grave doubts about the 747's future, given the ability of jets such as the Boeing 777 and Airbus A340 to fly longer distances.
"The mid-range aircraft certainly have more range value now," he said. Airlines such as Qantas have gravitated to mid-range jets because of the flexibility they allow in deploying the fleet to match market conditions.
For instance, it is expected Qantas and Jetstar's yet-to-be-delivered 787 Dreamliners will be used on domestic routes, regional flights into Asia and for long-haul services to Europe and the US. Qantas has 65 787s on order.
"Certainly the 747 performed a more than useful function," Mr Thomas said. It was the only jet up to the task of cost-effective long-haul flights when it began flying.
Qantas has taken delivery of 57 jumbos since 1971, making it the sixth biggest buyer of the jet. But it has 20 A380s on order and is looking to use the Boeing 787 as the new backbone of its international fleet, so the future of the 747 in the fleet does not look bright.
Qantas retired the last of its ageing 747-300s last month and is expected to phase its 30 747-400s out of service in the next decade.
Irrespective of the current woes or uncertainties, the B747 has been a revolutionary, industry-changing product in it's distinguished history. There are few here that remember air travel before the "jumbo" arrived on the world's doorstep in late 1969 / early 1970.
The frame was single-handedly responsible for bringing cheap international travel to the masses and advancing the concept of luxury in First Class, on a world-wide basis. It's inherent safety and superlative design has become the stuff of legends .. and it is wonderful to see that such a visionary aircraft has lasted - and performed so magnificantly - for such an uncharacteristically long lifespan.
The B747 has always been one of my very favourite aircraft to travel in. Yes, the Upper Deck Business Class has always been enormously comfortable to inhabit .. and multiple iterations of each model's floorplan have shown how truly versatile an aircraft it can be.
From when I first worked with AA in Sydney, the charm of the Wurlitzer "Piano Bar" in Coach to the luxury of First Class seats that swivelled 360 degrees to enable 4 person dining was evident. Such a pity that AA never flew the B747 on South Pacific routes, but it was always a special pleasure to travel on transontinental AA routes aboard this bird. Airlines such as CO even had a flying disco in Coach at one stage. Many of the early models (in various carrier's liveries) initially used the Upper Deck as a First Class Lounge area .. and with the B747-200, this gave way to the idea of permanent passenger seating in the upper deck.
It is, for me, still "odd" to think of Economy travel on the Upper Deck ~ although South African and JAL still maintained this type of configuration, as did NZ, up until a few years ago.
Of course, the spiral staircase of the B747-100's, -200's and SP's gave way to the straight-up staircase with the advent of the B747-300. And the B747-400 and ER models dispensed with the Flight Engineer position, effectively making this a 2 person-command aircraft.
Who can forget the somewhat bizarre layout of the B747SP with it's forward galley partially stretching down one side of the outer frame, with 'plug' windows to conceal the galley ?
Yes, my old friend - you may be 40 years of age, but you still manage to give me shivers of pleasure every time I see you arrive or depart at an airport anywhere in the world.
We all know that Boeing "bet the company" on the far-sighted decision to build this frame. And how fortunate for all of us, that this decision paid off .. and in spades. There may be other new frames now starting to replace you .. but I'll always have a special feeling in my heart for this wonderful bird. A true "pioneer" aircraft ~ and one that deservedly retains the title of 'Queen Of The Skies'.
Happy Birthday, you beautiful jumbo thing !
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