A FlightGlobal blog is reporting the following:

• NH to receive 11 787-8s over three month period (ZA007 through ZA016).
• China has deferred their early deliveries in favor of later Block aircraft (post-ZA030).
• NH, DL and AT have decided not to take ZA001 through ZA006 so they are now unallocated.
• AT will take ZA017 and NH ZA018.
• DL will not take the planes on the schedule originally signed by NW. Instead QF and AI will get these birds.

Great post, Stitch !

Let the speculation begin. I wonder who will reach out to grab the first 6 frames ?

Obviously the B789-only purchasers such as NZ are out. It would be ironic if QF wound up taking them (given their recent comments in the media). Maybe TUI Group or RAM...have no clue really.

I would think the carrier who took the first six frames would be one who ordered RR engines, no? Well at least the first 5. Hasn't Qantas chosen GE?

I think #1 - # 6 are so off standard / reworked no one wants them.

Unless they go with a unprecendented maintenance guarantee & discount.

My guess - VIPs (787BBJ).

I still believe it will be NH and/or JL, though BBJs make sense, as well.

Only DL and China appear to be either not ready to take 787s now or they want to wait for later block aircraft.

With NH receiving at least eleven production frames before they could receive a refurbished ZA001 and ZA002 they may just not need the two test frames at this time, even if they are still happy to take them. AT will at least get one production bird before they could get a refurbished ZA005.


So if customers (NH) don't need the planes immediately, I'm just wondering if Boeing wants to keep the planes as test frames beyond the end of the flight test and certification period so they can continue to gain performance data on them to feed back to the design and production teams to improve the production birds coming down the line? This could accelerate both the adoption of new production block points as well as the performance improvements those block points bring.

.. a good reason why QF would be counted 'out', I'd say. And, yes - to answer USAF336TFS' question, QF went with GE donks, not RR. In essence, since QF's first 15 - and only B787-8's - are to go to Jetstar International for long-haul, the prospects of them taking overweight / under-performing frames would be minimal.

Perhaps, Boeing might come to a "quiet" arrangement to place them with an enthusiastic carrier and then eventually swap them back 1 or 2 years hence .. for later, in-spec production models ?

Six frames would be a hell of a lot of 'test' frames for Boeing to hold in permanent inventory, wouldn't it ?

To listen to the pundits, you'd think the test birds only have enough range to get off the ground and circle PAE once before they have to land again. As such, there seems to be a wishful expectation that Boeing's only option is to give them to aerospace museums as static displays.

I'm confident NH will end up taking them, as well, and use them for intra-Asia and Oceania operations.

LOL .. Stitch !

No, I'm not exactly suggesting that the first 6 frames will need to have a USAF re-fuelling tanker follow them around .. but they are clearly overwieght and could be expected to perform 'under-spec' for some parameters.

I'm simply suggesting that an international carrier (such as QF) which is far more globally remote from the majority of the world and travels greater distances than most .. is probably less inclined to take such a frame(s), compared to other carriers that may be able to more easily absorb operational cost fluctuations.

It would be far more feasible for the likes of NH to operate such a frame with a reasonable degree of economics on TYO to (HKG, ICN, BKK, PEK, SIN) etc, rather than JQ doing a pure longhaul SYD to NRT, HNL or ATH with such frames.

Personally, I think you are correct. With all the attendant publicity surrounding statements of disappointment on delayed deliery of the B787's by NH's senior management, I would not at all be surprised to see NH taking at least some of them. Especially, since the B787-3 models have been placed in the 'unscheduled' launch date column by Boeing.

Is there any data available as to above-specification weights for frames one through six, and the effect[s] of same on operational restrictions?

Well we do need to take into account how retrofitting PIPs (Performance Improvement Plans) will affect the performance and range of those early planes. We know Boeing, GE and RR will improve the planes on a continual basis, so we should not look at these planes as static entities that will never improve.

For example, a 777W delivered in 2004 is burning the nearside of 10% less fuel per block hour today then it did at delivery thanks to improvements in engine SFC and other changeable features on the plane even though it does not weigh (effectively) any less then when it was delivered. Taken all together, the plane that flew ~7250nm when delivered now flies ~8000nm.

Improvements to SFC and other areas will likely reduce fuel burn of the first tranche of 787-8s, even though they will always be tons heavier then they should have and those reductions will push that range out. So if the first planes really can't reach 7000nm now, they likely will be hundreds of nautical miles beyond that within a few years. That might not be enough fof QF/JQ, but it will certainly be plenty for NH, for example, to reach both North America and the European Union.

As I understand it, NH is required to stay within 60 minutes of a diversion airport for one full year so it's not like they could have been flying those planes to EZE or GRU even if the plane could fly 10,000nm on delivery. By the time that year of service is over and NH receives their ETOPS operating certificate from the Japanese Aviation Authorities, those early, super-fat 787-8s might be flying a few hundred nautical miles farther so what was once an "Asia/Australia-only" bird is now a "Western North America" bird. A year after that, it could be an "Eastern North America / Central Europe" bird and a year after that finally a NRT-LHR bird.

I think that nails it as to why NH will take those birds. By the time they are legally able to fly the B787s far distances, they will have the experience, knowledge and data to be certified. Not to mention, the route planners will have some good data as to what the B787's capabilities are.

And we still don't know how aerodynamics are going to play out. The A380 was heavy, but thanks to better-then-expected aero, she hit her numbers. And what little I have heard on 787 aero, it's all been very positive.

GE is said to be at their planned SFC on the GEnx-1B series engines and hopes they can be even better by delivery (as they were with the GE90-11xB). So that is going to help the range, even on ZA005 and ZA006. Rolls has shrunk their SFC miss from 5% to 1% and continues to improve it, so it's possible they will be on-target at delivery, as well, which can only help ZA001-ZA004 and NH's early birds.