Found this in a Bloomberg article:




http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...&refer=home

Two years ago, I would have bet that either CX or NH would have ordered the 748I by now. Now...?

John Leahy is on record saying that he'll sell 10 whalejets this year and I expect an announcement at Paris for these (probably some LCC in central africa... )

There are still a good number of 747-400s out there that will need replacing. Not all of those operators will need an A380, but the 777-300ER and A350X-1000 remain serious threats, as well. I know one person is absolutely sure NH ordered 6 A380s with 6 options and then had to cancel the deal, but my contacts within and around NH state this never happened, so I don't know what to say on that.

And yet, there comes a time when Boeing needs to fish or cut bait. The easy thing to do is offer a 747-8I for a lower price then the 777-300ER to get airlines to buy the four-holer instead, but you're just throwing money away at that point since you'd rather sell them the 777-300ER (and in doing such a sale, you help put pressure against a future A350X-1000 order by extending out the replacement window).

I believe both Boeing and Airbus underestimated how good the 777-300ER would be and it's suitability to a variety of missions and roles. It has not negated the need for a VLA, but it does appear to have weakened it a good bit. As such, the original projections for 1000 VLA sales has been cut into deeply by the unexpected hundreds and hundreds of 77W sales.

al Baker from QR has been saying they will place an order for "aircraft" at Paris. Do you think....? Why not? Very little else they do makes sense.

I hope it's true, but I'm not holding my breath.

We've been hearing these type of rumors ever since the 748i was launched, and with the world economy in the crapper, I think this it's wishful thinking.

He still has 11 777-300ERs and 6 777-200LRs due for delivery and I expect another 777-200LR order to support additional expansion to North America (say another 4 to 6).

His A340-600 fleet does not fly anywhere that would payload limit a twin, so I am sure those will be replaced with 777-300ERs.

And his first A380-800s are due in 2012, which is about as early as he could reasonably expect 747-8Is. Then again, who knows if he really even needs anything larger then the 777-300ER and A350-1000XWB. Maybe he'll defer the A380's again and use the monies to buy some more A330s to tide him over until his 787-8s arrive.

Bingo

A market that hasn't been discussed is a domestic version for intra-Asian trunk routes. If the CASM is even slightly lower than the A380 I would think you could see an order for a few frames from Chinese and Japanese carriers. With all the discussion of re-aligning capacity with demand, is it possible to see the larger aircraft make an impact on the high frequency, high demand routes? Versus offering the flights on smaller aircraft more often.

Where did I see that an airline (ANA) was doing a feasability study about creating a cabin that was essentially "standing room only." It involved a 747 for short runs with a capacity of about 800 people strapped in, but standing. No more than 90 minute flights or something.



It sounds more comfortable than standing in the Tokyo rapid transit for 45 minutes at a time.

A number of Japanese regional airports have banned or are in the process of banning four-engine commercial aircraft which is why NH and JL have retired (or are in the process of retiring) their domestic 747-400 fleets. Some of these decisions appear to be political / financial (like ITM's ban to force traffic to KIX), but some might be due to noise issues. Considering the 747-8 is significantly quieter then the 747-400 on both departure and approach, it might be a viable option to restore those services at airports where noise is the problem.

First off, I have to agree entirely with Stitch that there is a viable and existing market for replacement B747-400's out there and I fully expect Boeing to capitalise on it, in years to come.

But I fail to follow your logic on the above (highlighted) quote. Why would Boeing want to undercut it's own highly successful B777-300ER program ?

Certainly in the very short-term, such a move might be used in order to spur or 'kick-start' orders - other than from LH - in order to give the B747-8I some 'cachet' and finite orders.

But in the long-term, this would seem a curious proposition. After all, the B747-8I now competes in the 425-450 seat class, where as the B777-300ER competes in the 300-350 seat class (depending on a 9-abreast or 10-abreast configuration).

Many have discussed the needs of carriers replacing B747-400's with B777-300ER's .. but this is a short-term outlook - and only works for a few carriers.

It often presumes that carriers can afford to 'drop' seats on doing so. This works in the times of a capacity shortfall or downturn .. but does not allow for expansion in capacity in good times - which will undoubtedly return after we are done with this recession. Many of these carriers use the B747-400 to operate a single daily service on long intercontinental trunk routes.

I agree that Boeing could well serve it's interests in reducing the cost of the B747-8I, in order to better compete head-on with the A380-800. A reduction in pricing would illustrate the true value of the efficiencies in the B747-8I as a frame, rather than just using it as a 'pricing tool' to act as a thorn-in-the-side of Airbus. But to price it under the B777-300ER ? No, that seems like folly to me. I would suggest that the B747-8I should be optimally priced at some $15-18 million more than the B777-300ER, which would equate to some specific savings on it's current list price .. and show it as a true competitor to the A380-800.

As far as the A350-1000 pricing is concerned, I'd imagine that Boeing will have no problem holding its own by offering the B777-300ER. To drop the B747-8I pricing below that of the B777-300ER simply serves only to further muddy the waters.

They would not want to. That was my point.



And yet many airlines did replace their 747-400s with 777-300ERs during a passenger traffic boom period. Of course, their decisions were predicated on the huge boom in premium cabin traffic so they could remove ten rows of Economy seats to make room for five rows of Business Class seats that were generating 5 to 10 times the revenue per seat.

But it's easy enough to reverse oneself and take out those extra rows of Business Class for multiple extra rows of Economy Class. And the 777-300ER still offers more belly cargo volume and greater efficiency.

Thanks for the clarification, Stitch. I agree that as a short-term incentive, such a move by Boeing could well 'work'.

I also understand your point on the 'downsizing'. However, for many carriers, this has worked decidely against them .. and in hindsight, will be harshly adjudged. Case in point : Cathay Pacific, where such 'downsizing' has been rapidly followed by a collapse in First / Business passenger traffic and the complete devolution of their freight strategy.

It may be relatively easy for CX to do an in-cabin refit, to increase the number of Y seats on their B777-300ER's .. but the wider - and more serious - question is .. the effect of retiring a large percentage of their B747-400 fleet for dedicated BCF conversions (allied with the cavernous freight capabilities of the B777-300ER's) at a time when the freight market has effectively collapsed by 30% or more.

If there is any prospect of a 747-8I order, look to Cathay Pacific.

With freight still waiting to hit rock bottom, CX takes delivery of their first model in 2010 IIRC - there is always a slim-to-none chance they could swap their order (part/all) to 747-8I's and replace older 747-400's.

And since first delivery is not until Q4,2011, CX would not be pressurised by adding any major capacity increase that the A380 would have if they so selected that airplane instead - which the chances are of that happening anytime soon is as likely as Concorde flying for Virgin Atlantic...

Well hindsight is always 20/20, kimshep.

Premium cabin travel and freight growth had been steady for ten years? Longer? We're about ten months into the current economic collapse and if it lasts ten years or longer, well at that point only NH will be around because the 737-700ER will be big enough to service any international route.



Many of these airlines (AF, NH) made their decisions back in 2000 when Boeing launched the 77W. CX is actually a late-comer, placing their first order in 2005, but even then, things were wonderful.

The effect is that the B747-200F is going to disappear a lot sooner from the freight community than otherwise anticipated. The old (early 2008) calculation of $200k/month lease on a 742 vs $900k on 744 has rapidly converged!

Interesting on the $900k for a B744. EK is leasing at least one of their B772L's for $1.2million/month....

An interesting point .. and one I think might just have some serious validity.

Of course, CX's previous decisions on the BCF conversion plans may well be the factor forcing them into such a proposition. I guess it depends now on whether they see passenger load factors returning any time soon (in which case the B777 may be the preferred horse) or whether they see passenger load factors returning soon and possible growth over the next 5-7 years (which would possibly see a place for the marginally increased capacity of the B747-8I) ?

I agree that the consideration of an A380-800 decision would now probably be outside CX's operational and load planning. CX's previous stance appeared to be an 'on the fence', 50/50, flip of the coin scenario .. but in light of current events and the replanning for future needs .. may well push Cathay closer to a B748I fleet, rather than the larger Airbus VLA.

Well Airbus said they are talking to Air China and China Eastern on the A380. So Boeing should also be talking to Air China and China Eastern. One of the few countries with an influential centralized government with huge cash at hand.

The noise about another 747-8I order sure has increased this week. Speculation ranging from an Asian major to VS...

I'm almost certain it won't be VS - unfortunately!

Maybe CX or Air China?

I could see a case for CX ordering the 747-8. They have over a dozen 777-300ERs left for delivery so they could swap those for 747-8s (probably at close to the same price, frankly) to replace their remaining 747-400s. The 747-8 would allow CX to fit a significant larger number of Economy Class seats which seems to be where the current growth is and the extra 500nm of range at MZFW would come in handy to haul those seats across the Pacific. And the additional 10 LD3 positions (over the 744) would help in the cargo department, which could help take up some of the slack of their dedicated cargo ops as that sector starts it's recovery and parked freighters come back.

FWIW, speculation on a (long awaited) second 747-8I customer is just that. There is one carrier getting close, but from what I know, its not happening in '09.

And nope, VS or CX are not even in the picture on this I'm afraid.

they already have 10 747-8F on order.........

That sux....

CX's CEO was recently quoted as his current plans are to focus on the 777-300ER as their 747-400 replacement (ala NH), though they continue to study both the A380 and 747-8.

C'mon man...give us a hint.....




They'll be studying it for a while I guess. I still think the B748I has the better shot of the two....

Too bad, I'd love to see CX end up with some 747-8i's...

I wonder if it wouldn't be a crazy thought that Emirates might take a few or convert to somehow?

It would be fun to see Branson get fed up with the whalebus and grab the -8i... wishful thinking!

I think a few A380s make sense for VS and the structure of their route network and slot situation at Heathrow. However, they'll need to have in place a lot more traffic feed to make it work. After all, they're using the smaller A346s (instead of 744s) on dense routes ex-LHR... so to put an A380 in their place (even on just a few of the routes), would be suicide at this point in time.

CMack,

Well if there is a second order this year, it won't be from EK as they have formally ruled out adding the 747-8 to their fleet.

Of course, I always felt confident that they were never going to buy it in the first place since even at base specification, the A380-800 could out haul and out fly the 747-8 at MZFW so it was always going to be able to carry more passengers the same distance so the 747-8 offered them nothing over the A380-800.

I do believe EK would be interested in a more-capable 777-300ER, however, so I don't see their interest solely as a smokescreen to get Airbus to improve the A380, as their "interest" in the 747-8 only was.

Took seven months, but it finally happened.