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Aurora
Again, Mr. Doug McVitie provides a unique insight into the inner workings of the EADS "money making" machine. Very thought provoking article, sure to provoke the usual "kill the messenger" response.

http://www.glgroup.com/News/Airbus-Lost-&#...0XWB-42822.html

QUOTE
When Airbus relaunched the A350 for the whateverth time in late 2006, creating the ludicrously-named A350XWB, a sweating, barely coherent and deeply uncomfortable John Leahy stood in front of an audience of sceptics and as usual blatantly lied, saying all 182 A350 customers would convert to the A350XWB at the new price -- $171m to $215m, a jump of nearly 26%.

There was laughter in the auditorium and it didn't take Leahy long to realize just how naïve his remarks were. The first airline to agree under pressure eventually to convert was Finnair, but only after insisting on paying the old price for the new aircraft. Net result: a $396m loss before the ink was dry on the new contract. Great job, John.

Having seen a precedent established, of course, every other A350 customer was anxious to follow suit, the result being Airbus lost somewhere around $7.5bn in revenue after allowing for outright A350 cancelations. And this from an aircraft that hadn't even been successfully designed yet, despite numerous attempts.

So while Boeing writes off just $2.5bn for three test articles with no resale value but plenty of ongoing RDT&E potential, clueless Airbus has already written off $7.5bn+ in lost revenue due to market misreading, incompetent management decisions and poor reading of the industry. Oh and did i mention the A350 program cost had somehow jumped from $5m to $10m (it's $16bn+ now).


What I find very interesting is the lack of EADS' counter-response. No true profit-driven enterprise could afford to have this sort of scathing criticism in the general public; institutional investors would treat the stock as toxic. That EADS doesn't respond, or worse, could care less, speaks volumes WRT its strategic outlook.

Is the A350XWB, financially speaking, "Son of Whalejet" in the making?
rhapsody
Well son of Whalejet can probably be assessed in a decade or so. Probably depends on it's final proven performance against the 787. The numbers in the article could be slightly misleading. If in fact the cost to produce the A350 iteration n versus n-1 (I lost track of the iterations) is really $44M per copy more then the author is correct Airbus just lost $7.5 B or so. If the cost to produce is less than $44M per copy more than the n-1 iteration, then the $7.5 B loss could be overstated. Wonder how all that will look in the early year A350 production financials? It also explains whey Airbus will need about 5000 or so sales of the A350 to break even or whatever we are up to now. Boeing might have egg on their face getting the 787 into flight test, but EADS has a much bigger problem with cost credibility. The A350 gifts from the governments don't even cover this loss much less real development costs. Wonder how long it will be before EADS asks for more handouts for A350.
keesje

The A350 became the fatest selling widebody ever. 500 within a few yrs. Few original airlines didn't convert to the XWB

In the same period Airbus sold 500 A330s and counting. 8 roll out every month.

The competition needs no further comment. I think its clear who doing well in the twin aisles.

I think EADS woud give a counter-response if they think its neccessary. In some cases they just pass..

http://www.google.com/search?hl=nl&lr=...art=10&sa=N

Him using "ex Airbus Employee" (long ago for a short time) without further references should make us more curious..


rhapsody
Well, do we believe Keesje or Randy? I know who I believe.

http://boeingblogs.com/randy/archives/2009...ks_and_hmm.html
keesje
Everybody except Randy and some B groupies know we are talking the A50XWB.

Unless you believe its somehow the same aircraft announced as in 2005. (The airlines and Airbus don't wink.gif )

QUOTE
Well, do we believe Keesje or Randy? I know who I believe.

Are you sure you want to believe Randy ? What would make you Not believing him ? 1laugh.gif

Recently I said the 787 flight test schedule should cover at least 12. Since 1 week he agrees.

Want another 10 examples?
rhapsody
QUOTE (keesje @ Aug 30 2009, 02:29 PM) *
Everybody except Randy and some B groupies know we are talking the A50XWB.

Unless you believe its somehow the same aircraft announced as in 2005. (The airlines and Airbus don't wink.gif )

QUOTE
Well, do we believe Keesje or Randy? I know who I believe.

Are you sure you want to believe Randy ? What would make you Not believing him ? 1laugh.gif

Recently I said the 787 flight test schedule should cover at least 12. Since 1 week he agrees.

Want another 10 examples?

Red Herrings aside, since you haven't countered, you must agree that Aibus lost $7.5 B before the A350 newest addition ever got off the drawing board or LCD as the case may be?
BOEING777
QUOTE (keesje @ Aug 30 2009, 07:48 PM) *
The A350 became the fatest selling widebody ever. 500 within a few yrs.


Not quite Sir (493).

Thanks to Rhapsody for the associated URL.

QUOTE
In the same period Airbus sold 500 A330s and counting.


Boeing sold over 480 777's during the same period too (and counting). So what.

What would be nicer is if you could stomach the energy to discuss the numbers Doug alludes to, rather than compare apples to oranges.

Over to you Keesje.
Stitch
Well who wouldn't take the A350XWB for the same price as the original A350? confused.gif

Airbus also sending out some RFPs offer the A350-800XWB for the same price as the 787-8 and the A350-900XWB for the same price as the 787-9 likely didn't hurt sales, either.

Of course, a good chunk of the initial tranche of 787 orders were no doubt helped by Boeing pricing the plane far closer to the 767 family then the 777 family - and a good bit below what Airbus list for the A330-200 was. Even today a 787-8 is $20 million lower than an A330-200 at list.

Seriously, people. Boeing and Airbus are going to make shedloads of money on the ancillaries these planes will need during their 20-30 years (minimum) of service life. They can afford to take a bath up front.
keesje
QUOTE (BOEING777 @ Aug 31 2009, 08:20 AM) *
QUOTE (keesje @ Aug 30 2009, 07:48 PM) *
The A350 became the fatest selling widebody ever. 500 within a few yrs.


Not quite Sir (493).

Thanks to Rhapsody for the associated URL.

QUOTE
In the same period Airbus sold 500 A330s and counting.


Boeing sold over 480 777's during the same period too (and counting). So what.

What would be nicer is if you could stomach the energy to discuss the numbers Doug alludes to, rather than compare apples to oranges.

Over to you Keesje.


I would spend time to so with many analysts. Spending time rebuting things Doug said I find a waste of time. He position is totally clear on Airbus & nothing will ever change his mind. He has made that clear to us all for years. It's his soul mission spread negativety on Airbus at any opportunity. Wouldn't you like to know why? Ask him.
Aurora
What I would like to know is not McVitie's motive, but the reason for EADS' silence in the face of these damning disclosures.
rhapsody
QUOTE (keesje @ Aug 31 2009, 02:25 PM) *
QUOTE (BOEING777 @ Aug 31 2009, 08:20 AM) *
QUOTE (keesje @ Aug 30 2009, 07:48 PM) *
The A350 became the fatest selling widebody ever. 500 within a few yrs.


Not quite Sir (493).

Thanks to Rhapsody for the associated URL.

QUOTE
In the same period Airbus sold 500 A330s and counting.


Boeing sold over 480 777's during the same period too (and counting). So what.

What would be nicer is if you could stomach the energy to discuss the numbers Doug alludes to, rather than compare apples to oranges.

Over to you Keesje.


I would spend time to so with many analysts. Spending time rebuting things Doug said I find a waste of time. He position is totally clear on Airbus & nothing will ever change his mind. He has made that clear to us all for years. It's his soul mission spread negativety on Airbus at any opportunity. Wouldn't you like to know why? Ask him.


So no more red herrings, was he correct? If airlines get the planes at the old price then someone is losing a bunch of money and his estimate of $7.5 B is probably in the right ball park and that doesn't include early buyer incentatives on cost (i.e. under cost to produce them), that most of these same customers got. No wonder EADS says to hell with the WTO, we need the money, no matter the fall out on the tanker deal.
BOEING777
QUOTE (keesje @ Aug 31 2009, 09:25 PM) *
Spending time rebuting things Doug said I find a waste of time. He position is totally clear on Airbus & nothing will ever change his mind. He has made that clear to us all for years. It's his soul mission spread negativety on Airbus at any opportunity. Wouldn't you like to know why? Ask him.


So in other words you are unable to refute his claims?

Thanks.

It also seems your sole mission to discredit McVitie because you take issue with his numbers etc - I'd give you more credence if you did that.

As for why Doug calls out Airbus, I know better than everyone here (indeed the entire non-podcasting aerospace bandwagon) and I can say that with a very high degree of authority - not a single person here (incl you) can say the same - so again, over to you to refute his claims if you can.

If you cant, quit shooting the messenger.
keesje
Lets see:

This is the start of the article

QUOTE
When Airbus relaunched the A350 for the whateverth time in late 2006, creating the ludicrously-named A350XWB, a sweating, barely coherent and deeply uncomfortable John Leahy stood in front of an audience of sceptics and as usual blatantly lied, saying all 182 A350 customers would convert to the A350XWB at the new price -- $171m to $215m, a jump of nearly 26%.


Now let your wife / partner read this "analyses" and ask if she considers this a serious journalism.
'nough said.

one of the crazy statements :

QUOTE
And the difference, of course: The $2.5bn is Boeing's money. The Airbus $7.5bn is launch aid never to be sen again..


blink.gif How can money not paid by customers change into "never to be seen launch aid" ?

Bullocks!

another

QUOTE
I wouldn't trust Airbus to tell me the time of day. This lack of trust extends right through the French judicial system too and the day will soon come when certain current and former overpaid Airbus executives are forced either to pay enormous fines (starting with Leahy) or for those others still clinging on to leave the company in disgrace, like one of their many recent ceos, the the multi-despicable Forgeard.


clown1.gif

What has french juridicial system & a long gone VIP to do with this suppossed 7.5 billion loss ? Seems his emotions took over here..

QUOTE
Having seen a precedent established, of course, every other A350 customer was anxious to follow suit, the result being Airbus lost somewhere around $7.5bn in revenue after allowing for outright A350 cancelations


So Doug suspect launch customer paid the same (undisclosed) price for the original A350 as for the XWB (he assumes list price price) and simply multiplies it with the total backlog. Aint that a bit rich? wankin.gif Also delay payments, A330 orders / A340 conversion were in the game.

Its the same as knowing what 1 customer got for a 2.5 yr delay of 10 x B787s and multiplying it by eighty for the total backlog.

QUOTE
Airbus can't build the A350 as it doesn't have the money or the engineering engineering ability and if its cash reserves are forcibly depleted, nationalization is just around the corner. Let's see what the WTO says...


So Airbus can build the A380 but not the A350, they don't have the engineering skills wankin.gif "Nationalization is just around the corner". Recently Doug stated EADS has about $11.5bn in cash reserves. http://www.glgroup.com/News/Who-Will-Cough...XWB--40940.html.
Now doug what is it? wacko.gif You can't have it both ways!

I think an official responds is what Doug is looking for, to get some credibility.
http://www.glgroup.com/News/Insider-Tradin...rbus-41965.html

Doug worked for Airbus indeed. For about 9 months, 14 yrs ago. http://www.linkedin.com/in/dougmcvitie

Aside from Doug's angry comments, there is IMO a more serious question. What about the critical reading & validation skills of fellow Fleetbuzz members? Will everything do as long as it is anti-Airbus or pro-Boeing?
rhapsody
QUOTE (keesje @ Sep 1 2009, 07:26 AM) *
Lets see:

This is the start of the article

QUOTE
When Airbus relaunched the A350 for the whateverth time in late 2006, creating the ludicrously-named A350XWB, a sweating, barely coherent and deeply uncomfortable John Leahy stood in front of an audience of sceptics and as usual blatantly lied, saying all 182 A350 customers would convert to the A350XWB at the new price -- $171m to $215m, a jump of nearly 26%.


Now let your wife / partner read this "analyses" and ask if she considers this a serious journalism.
'nough said.

one of the crazy statements :

QUOTE
And the difference, of course: The $2.5bn is Boeing's money. The Airbus $7.5bn is launch aid never to be sen again..


blink.gif How can money not paid by customers change into "never to be seen launch aid" ?

Bullocks!

another

QUOTE
I wouldn't trust Airbus to tell me the time of day. This lack of trust extends right through the French judicial system too and the day will soon come when certain current and former overpaid Airbus executives are forced either to pay enormous fines (starting with Leahy) or for those others still clinging on to leave the company in disgrace, like one of their many recent ceos, the the multi-despicable Forgeard.


clown1.gif

What has french juridicial system & a long gone VIP to do with this suppossed 7.5 billion loss ? Seems his emotions took over here..

QUOTE
Having seen a precedent established, of course, every other A350 customer was anxious to follow suit, the result being Airbus lost somewhere around $7.5bn in revenue after allowing for outright A350 cancelations


So Doug suspect launch customer paid the same (undisclosed) price for the original A350 as for the XWB (he assumes list price price) and simply multiplies it with the total backlog. Aint that a bit rich? wankin.gif Also delay payments, A330 orders / A340 conversion were in the game.

Its the same as knowing what 1 customer got for a 2.5 yr delay of 10 x B787s and multiplying it by eighty for the total backlog.

QUOTE
Airbus can't build the A350 as it doesn't have the money or the engineering engineering ability and if its cash reserves are forcibly depleted, nationalization is just around the corner. Let's see what the WTO says...


So Airbus can build the A380 but not the A350, they don't have the engineering skills wankin.gif "Nationalization is just around the corner". Recently Doug stated EADS has about $11.5bn in cash reserves. http://www.glgroup.com/News/Who-Will-Cough...XWB--40940.html.
Now doug what is it? wacko.gif You can't have it both ways!

I think an official responds is what Doug is looking for, to get some credibility.
http://www.glgroup.com/News/Insider-Tradin...rbus-41965.html

Doug worked for Airbus indeed. For about 9 months, 14 yrs ago. http://www.linkedin.com/in/dougmcvitie

Aside from Doug's angry comments, there is IMO a more serious question. What about the critical reading & validation skills of fellow Fleetbuzz members? Will everything do as long as it is anti-Airbus or pro-Boeing?


More red herrings. Lets keep this very simple, the difference in list price for the new (now current) A350 XWB versus the list price when the original 182 airplanes were ordered (based on a warmed over A330) is about $40B per airplane. I have seen no information that these airlines will pay any more for the current A350 XWB via their negotiations with Airbus. Lets see now, about $40B times 182 airplanes is about the $7.5 quoted. My guess is that the actual cost delta of the first 182 A350XWB versus a warmed over A330 design will be a lot more than the list difference at that time of about $40B as the learning curve for all that new technology in the latest A350 XWB will not be nearly as steep as for a warmed over design with far less technology.

As an aside, many folks would give an individual a whole lot of credit for leaving Airbus only after a few months.
keesje
QUOTE
As an aside, many folks would give an individual a whole lot of credit for leaving Airbus only after a few months.


Also if they didn't plan to?

Lets get down to business. You admit you know nothing of actual prices paid for the first A350 nor for the XWB.
Nor does Mr. McVitie. Still it is good enough for you and others to make far reaching conclusions.

I think this is totally flawed mud throwing that isn't picked up by any serious media and not even by less serious media.
http://news.google.nl/news/search?pz=1&...s+%247.5bn+A350

I think supporting this rant is a choice.
Aurora
QUOTE (keesje @ Sep 1 2009, 04:38 PM) *
Also if they didn't plan to?

Lets get down to business. You admit you know nothing of actual prices paid for the first A350 nor for the XWB.
Nor does Mr. McVitie. Still it is good enough for you and others to make far reaching conclusions.

I think this is totally flawed mud throwing that isn't picked up by any serious media and not even by less serious media.
http://news.google.nl/news/search?pz=1&...s+%247.5bn+A350

I think supporting this rant is a choice.

keesje, could you tell us how you "know" that McVitie "doesn't know" what he's talking about? This man makes his living by advising clients. If they thought for a moment that he was just running his mouth, then his credibility would be irrevocably destroyed. The fact that he's still "out there" and "in business" speaks volumes.

So does EADS' silence.

One more time, how do you know that McVitie is not correct?
ProudWings
Ok, much as I hate to weigh in on this crap (coz I don't really care a hill o' beans, I just find it really entertaining watching y'all bicker back and forth like school children)...

On airbus, keesje says:

QUOTE (keesje @ Sep 2 2009, 12:26 AM) *
QUOTE
And the difference, of course: The $2.5bn is Boeing's money. The Airbus $7.5bn is launch aid never to be sen again..


blink.gif How can money not paid by customers change into "never to be seen launch aid" ?

Bullocks!


On Boeing, keesje says:

QUOTE (keesje @ Sep 2 2009, 02:47 AM) *
Costs : the discounts given to launch customers (remember the airlines were cautious in 03-04)


Either discounts at launch are a cost or not. One way or the other. Which is it? (I don't really care which one, but for goodness sake pick ONE and stick to it please)
keesje
QUOTE
QUOTE (keesje @ Sep 2 2009, 02:47 AM) Costs : the discounts given to launch customers (remember the airlines were cautious in 03-04)
Either discounts at launch are a cost or not. One way or the other. Which is it? (I don't really care which one, but for goodness sake pick ONE and stick to it please)


It different if you charge an airline $1 Billion for 10 aircraft (launch discount) but it costs you $1.2 Billion to build them, that $0.2 Billion cash out. And that no hypothetical money. BTW you agree Doug conversion of not paid charges for Aircraft into "launch aid never to be sen again.." is bullocks? Aurora any comments on that ?

QUOTE
One more time, how do you know that McVitie is not correct?


Doug makes a bold the statement and has to substantiate that. He clearly assumes everything, gives no sources or references and packs everything in an emotional rand. Since when is that good enough for you Aurora?

BeauNG
QUOTE (keesje @ Sep 2 2009, 12:08 AM) *
Doug makes a bold the statement and has to substantiate that. He clearly assumes everything, gives no sources or references and packs everything in an emotional rand.


Kind of like you, eh keesje?
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