By Cornelius Rahn and Steve Rothwell

Oct. 29 (Bloomberg) -- Deutsche Lufthansa AG, Europe's second-largest airline, will deal a blow to Airbus SAS's A380 superjumbo program by seeking to defer deliveries of the plane as the economic slump hurts demand for travel. The handover of some of the 15 A380s on order will delayed, Lufthansa Chief Executive Officer Wolfgang Mayrhuber said today in Frankfurt, without being more specific. The carrier is currently due to receive the first plane next March after Airbus put back delivery from December because of production problems.

Cologne-based Lufthansa will postpone 2.1 billion euros ($3.1 billion) of investment spending over the next three years, with the bulk of savings coming from delays to new planes, Chief Financial Officer Stephan Gemkow said in an interview. About 10 aircraft are likely to be deferred next year and the company is talking with Airbus, Boeing Co., Bombardier Inc. and Empresa Brasileira de Aeronautica SA, or Embraer, about its requirements, spokeswoman Stefanie Stotz said by telephone.

"With a sense of proportion, we are adjusting our aircraft orders and other investments to the dampened growth path of the industry," Gemkow said at a press briefing in Frankfurt.

Thirteen of the A380's 16 buyers have now slowed deliveries, including the German company's rivals British Airways Plc, which postponed the first six of its 12 orders by an average of five months, and Air France-KLM Group, which pushed back two orders.

Reduced Target

Toulouse, France-based Airbus said Sept. 29 that it had cut the delivery target for the 550-seat aircraft by one unit to 13 this year after Singapore Airlines Ltd. pushed the purchase of a single jet back into January. The planemaker said then that it still planned to hand over more than 20 of the aircraft in 2010.

Anca Spiridon, an external spokeswoman for Airbus, said today that the unit of European Aeronautic, Defence & Space Co. will make a precise announcement on build rates at the start of next year.

Airbus has 200 contracts from 16 customers for the A380, which entered service in 2007. Nineteen have been delivered and no airline has yet canceled an order for the aircraft.

Lufthansa stock rose 2.6 percent to 10.64 euros in Frankfurt trading and EADS closed up 0.9 percent at 12.87 euros in Paris.

To contact the reporters on this story: Steve Rothwell in London at srothwell@bloomberg.net; Cornelius Rahn in Frankfurt at crahn2@bloomberg.net

Last Updated: October 29, 2009 13:59 EDT





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So they still plan to deliver 20 next year? Mostly to Emirates?

I remember a few years back there was a thread in that other aviation forum discussing how the next economic downturn would be good for the A380 because schedule cutbacks would result in fewer flights on BIGGER planes. So much for that hypothesis...

For the past 10 years airlines have been downsizing the international fleet. The DC10, L101, B747 aircraft have been replaced by 777, 767 and A330s. All of these are less than 300 seats. The savings per seat mile between a 747-400 and an A330 are not so much in favour of the airbus as to scrap the 747 if the seats are being filled. So what makes these marketing geniuses at Airbus and their customers think that they can suddenly fill a 550 to 800 seat flying machine? I would suggest that there are very few markets that can support such an aircraft. Either there are numerous suppliers as is EGll to JFK or it is a sparse market that can't fill one customer's 380 let alone multiples thereof. They might make great hostels though

Air France took delivery of their first A380-800 today (F-HPJA), but Airbus informed them that their second frame (F-HPJB) will now be delayed from November 2009 to January 2010 so that pushes one AF and one SQ plane into 2010.

Speaking of which...I've mentioned this incessantly on the "other forum" years ago.

Airbus Says It Can't Meet Demand For A380


Here's another one:

"and I think the bigger problem is the international economic imbalance which could cause havoc in future travel..." - (post#53 from yours truly)

What Routes Would BA Fly If They Got The A380?

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...id=aSbA8LrQ5ndU

Starting to sound a lot like Concorde. This has got to be killing the bottom line at EADS. Wonder how much money EADS has to lose before they call it quits.

Coupled with the news of A320 deferrals, high euro vs dollar exchange rate and the threat of more WTO action WRT A350 subsidies, the financial picture doesn't look all that promising for the next few years. I do expect a few ridiculous(ly) large orders coming in the near future--one from the usual suspect (EK), but whether these will ever get delivered or not remains an open question.

Anyone would think (from reading this set of posts) that the A380-800 is the only frame on Lufthansa's deferral list. Sorry folks .. but as Aurora softly alludes to above, it's not.

Perhaps, the topic heading should be changed .. in reference to Reuter's more sobering "Lufthansa To Delay Aircraft Deliveries" which encompasses the full story ?

Many thanks for posting your comment, BeauNG.

I think that the delicious irony of Richard Aboulafia's "pronouncement" is lost on more than a few. I wonder what the likes of EK, QF, SQ would have to say about that ? In fact, I also wonder what Richard would have to say about a remark, which is clearly disprovable ?

This probably warrants its own thread, but Mr. al Baker from QR is in the news again.

QR is seeking a "revised" delivery schedule for its A380s. So if other airlines defer, maybe this plane collector would take them (up to 5). After all, profitability does not seem to be a consideration at this airline.

No first class on intercontinental routes.

http://www.gulf-times.com/site/topics/arti...mp;parent_id=28

Qatar Airways chief executive Akbar al-Baker says the airlines is ‘contractually committed’ to orders for five Airbus A380s.

Okay then--disprove it.

So is there an airline where the A380 is he mainstay of the company? Is there even an airline where the A380 might become the mainstay of an airline. IMHO to be a mainstay, it would haul the most passengers of any other airplane, make the most profits, or have a higher quantity than any other airplane at the airline.

The closest will likely be EK. But even there, if they take all of their ordered planes the total A380-800 fleet would still lag behind the 777-300ER and A350XWB fleets by a score or two of frames each (assuming EK doesn't order any more 77Ws). However the A380-800 fleet would likely carry more passengers in aggregate than the 77W and A350XWB fleets and might also generate the most aggregate revenues.

I don't think many were saying that the A380 would be a flop for the carriers ordering them...au contraire, many prognosticators such as myself were stating A380 operators would probably do ok/well with the plane. Its the manufacturer which will bare the "scars"....and so far kimshep, that has proven to be correct.

2010 will be 10 years since the plane has been on sale. Only 200 sold?? I went back on A.net and saw many of my comments and argument to my comments and I have yet to be stood corrected.

I stated this on A.net back on October 16, 2005

"its "lame".....but I'll be happy to "eat my words" if Airbus has backlog of "at least 500 frames"....." (reply 95)


http://www.airliners.net/aviation-forums/g...in/2383752/1/#1

Face it kimshep, this plane has been a COMPLETE FLOP for Airbus/EADS. The money sunk, and the money/resources the plane still takes, it will never reach even a remote return. Not only that, IIRC, Airbus still has to return the RLI even if the plane doesn't make money. Talk about a financial sinkhole.

The underlying economic conditions are forcing many carriers to modify their business plans. Look at QF. Here's a nice article on their switch in emphasis from that long haul premium market, to short haul. Yields continue to be in the toilet.
http://www.centreforaviation.com/news/2009...-to-slump/page1



Anyone think whalejets are useful on short haul?

And...as some of us have been saying since 2005, what happens when the "whalejet wars" begin? If one has a government behind them, such as the mideast big 3, then they'll likely continue to operate and poach market share. If one is a "for profit" airline, like the European big 3, and QF, I see nothing but pain ahead.

Depends on how you define "short-haul". Some of EK"s A388s are planned to be two-class (653 seat) frames for use on missions under 10 hours with an MTOW of 510t (50t below their long-haul models).

Will they call it "Cattle Class?"

I had trans-continental in mind, as in NYC-LAX or SYD-Perth (can't remember all those codes!). These are definitely less than 10 hours, but would they work with the Whale-like-aeroplane?

Maybe in Asia, but otherwise probably not. For the transcontinental markets in Nth America and Australia, the demand is certainly there, but I don't think either pax or airlines would be willing to forego the current frequency of flights to make this a possibility.

I can see it now...QF gets rid of three/four 737 trans-cons & substitutes a daily Whale to take their place. New marketing slogan: "your time is OUR time". Why not, especially if the yields on the international routes are as bad as noted in the media? Tiger doesn't have the whalejet--or at least not yet so it would be marketing novelty. They could easily cram 600 seats into the thing for trans-con. Give out free alcohol & this just might work.

Well, if you're talking about Australia... Give out free alcohol and just about anything would probably work

I would not take this as encouraging news, especially since the CEO is the one responsible for owning up to realities in public. With mounting losses, and a possible WTO ruling to be announced, could they entirely cancel the 380 and concentrate on NGNB and the 350? How many years can an estimated $25 billion program continue to be a financial drain until someone bravely repurposes that capital?

Tuesday, January 12, 2010,
Airbus CEO expresses concern about aircraft programs Wichita Business Journal - by Daniel McCoy

Airbus CEO Tom Enders said Tuesday that deliveries of the company's newest plane, the A380, have been disappointing and that its A400M military transport program should be canceled or delayed.

According to a report from the Associated Press, Enders said the A380 will be a financial drain on the company for several years following a 2009 in which Airbus only delivered 10 of the aircraft.

And the A400M, he says, will only survive if customer governments commit more money to the program. The A400M made its first flight last month.

Airbus has a North American engineering division in Wichita. Airbus North American Engineering, a subsidiary of Airbus Americas, announced Thursday that the company would be bringing 80 more workers to Wichita and expanding its operations into the old Kansas Sports Hall of Fame Building at 238 N. Mead.

Despite the troubled aircraft, Airbus also announced Tuesday it had delivered a record number of planes in 2009. Deliveries for the year were 498, up from the 483 deliveries it recorded in 2008.

Downthread, I think it is Stitch that suggests (quite rightly) that the A380-800 will be a mainstay of the EK fleet.

However, looking closer to home, QF is by far, the better example. As far as 'international' is concerned, QF's B743's have all been retired and the fleet now consists primarily of B747-400's and the 6 x B747-400ER's. As QF takes delivery of more A380-800's, it is effectively retiring the older B747-400's on a one-for-one basis.

It is obvious that the 6 x B747-400ER's will be around - and run in parallel - with the A380-800's for some time to come. But by the time QF takes delivery of many of it's current A380-800 orders, this will firmly represent the backbone of the international fleet. It must be remembered that QF does not have a fleet of B777's (as EK and SQ does).

Naturally, there is the 'stop-gap' order for a small number of A330's that QF is taking to tide them over for the delays with the B787 program. But even with the eventual B787 deliveries, it will take some solid period of time before QF has sizeable numbers of the B787 in it's own fleet, given that JQ will also be a beneficiary of the B787 program. So, for QF at least, the A380-800 will be it's true mainstay .. up till around 2017-2018.

As yet, it is too early to predict what will happen at BA, given they have some 52 plus B747's in their fleet. While the first A380-800 order tranche goes a long way to indicating what way BA will go, we will not know BA's exact plans for wide-bodies until subsequent order(s) are placed. But BA should certainly be considered another carrier where the A380-800 could be the mainstay of its international fleet.

The mainstay of BA's fleet will increasingly be aircraft such as the 777, 787 and probably the A350. Assuming that it takes delivery of its A380s, I do0n't see it replacing all 747s with 380s. Time will tell.

BA will be a somewhat 'difficult' one to guess, for a while yet.

Factors that are clouding any clear vision on BA's front include :

- how soon will the travel market (and passengers) rebound ?
- what will happen with BA's 'class' mix ?
- how well .. and seamlessly .. will IB's fleet integration be achieved ?
- what of BA's pension woes .. which could conceivably impact on available cash ?
- BA's eventual fiscal role in the JAL 'shore-up' ? (An article in the NYT yesterday states BA will assist with some STG Pnds $ 200 million in direct cash support, as part of the OneWorld effort.

Other less obvious matters include whether BA chooses to continue with its same international business model or whether that will come under scrutiny from shareholders. We're a long way away from the recent days where BA was able to withdraw from major routes (ie: LHR-MEL) to place aircraft on more 'profitable' runs. Perhaps, that strategy may well be 're-visited' in the near future ?

All of the above will have some level of impact on BA. But, suffice to say, I don't see any major downsizing of the BA fleet, at this stage .. and those 'well-utilised' B747-400's will need to be replaced at some stage.

Good point, which I think applies to other airlines as well. Nice article here in Center for Asia Pacific Aviation detailing the carnage for all the EU full service carriers.
http://www.centreforaviation.com/news/2010...st-ground/page1

But of course all you aviation junkies have seen this by now!

BA will not have to spend the $200 million as its almost certain JL is going to bolt for SkyTeam....

That being said, BA does have a lot of problems-especially the unions who think its 2006-2007 and BA's pension woes.

On its own, that might be a fairly prescient quote

... but the ball is no longer entirely in JAL management hands. Far from it. Lets wait and see what the new JAL Board decides in conjunction with the Japanese Government and ETIC, the latter of whom will be soon pulling all the 'purse strings' and weighing up the opposing AA/BA/OneWorld - DL/Skyteam options.

Of course Kimshep, I agree, we won't know until the "final bell" rings. That being said, when one boxer is continuously knocking another boxer into the canvas, well, its rather difficult for that boxer to really win unless there is some kind of lucky or miraculous knockout punch.