No information on delivery nor whether or not this will be the IGW model BA is getting.

News Article [In French]

It is described as "the first new order since 2006..." But it is not an order, it is Vietnam toying with the idea of an order, which at a price of $200 million apiece for 4 frames, may not be a bad idea, and if that is the bargain basement price, others will toy with the idea as well, and some others who already have firm orders, may want a discount down to that level or not take delivery(?). Even at $250 million a copy, it could prove saleable and may fit into a few carrier's fleet plans in small numbers. And you don't get to large numbers unless you are adding up the small numbers. A new 380 strategy emerges? How much to refit Hanio's airport to make it 380 friendly? Engines included at that price? Spares? Hmmmmm.

Just found out today that Airbus are going to be lowering their 2010 production rate for the A380, despite the recent guidance from 3-4 weeks ago.

Also - EK - the situation there is AWFUL!

For the first time, I'm actually thinking that the A380 programme is truly doomed...

I've been skeptical about the long-term business case for the A380 from the beginning, but it's probably not a good idea to arrive at conclusions about future sales potential based on the current economic situation. We have seen across the board sluggishness in the aviation industry that has seriously impacted virtually every new aircraft product. There are encouraging signs that the economy is beginning to turn around, but it will likely be another 18-24 months before we see something resembling a "normal" economic situation. At this point, I think it's very difficult to tell if the slow A380 sales we see are the result of a genuine lack of interest, or just another casualty of the global recession. Only time will tell.

EK's Tim Clark noted yesterday that the airline will receive two more birds (MSN007 and MSN023) next month, but Airbus is running behind on planned 2010 deliveries so if customer's higher up the delivery order defer, EK would be interested in possibly taking those frames to maintain delivery plans.

Then why are EK's people behind the scenes saying things are desperate? Their yields are down almost 50% from mid-'07... For the first time my confidence in Dubai Inc to be successful in the aviation field is starting to waver... (I don't think they'll succeed with the overall 'Dubai' project' - but that's another matter).

Anyhow - as for Vietnam Airlines, this MOU must have been signed so they can increase their model aircraft collection in the headquarters? What on earth will they do with an A380...?

I can think of two premium routes for VN right off :

- the route to CDG is both a critical one for VN and an extremely well patronised and popular route
- the route to SYD is also of critical importance in terms of growth and capacity issues

But I must admit, I wonder if this is a 'growth strategy' process order or an attempted 'cost-saving' measure ?

Primarily CDG service. The demand is definitely there to justify an A380 on the route - for Air France, that is. Whether VN can fill an A380 on that route themselves is another question. The other route I have heard quite often is LAX as their US gateway for Vietnam pax. Now, again, the demand is no doubt there, but it's split among dozens of one-stop flights on CI, KE, OZ, JL, NH and UA. Pulling the necessary away from other airlines will be a hard thing to do for VN, even if it's a nonstop over a one-stop. Price is still a deciding factor, and IIRC, yields on Vietnam-US routings are quite low.

That said, I still consider VN to be a more realistic A380 operator than Air Austral, but that's another topic...

Trawling back through some 'old' information, I agree that this is not a formal order for VN. It is an MOU - Memorandum Of Understanding or 'intention to buy'. However, IINM, the curious thing here is that VN had previously announced / signed an MOU.

So, it would appear that VN is quite serious about this. But is it a 're-enforcemnt of an existing MOU' or is it some more formalised agreement that takes us from an 'intent to buy' to some preparatory level prior to actually signing a full purchase contract ?