Me thinks it's time to start this thread for the new year, in hopes that 2010 will be a lot more positive than last year *fingers crossed*.

Link to Boeing's order page is still here, and we start of the new year with...

Undisclosed customer for 10 737s

And right from the start, we can speculate

According to this, it's Ethiopian Airlines

http://www.atwonline.com/news/story.html?storyID=19114

Dave

And as expected, in this week's update Boeing confirms it's ET behind the order.

Well, finally some new orders this week:

QUOTE

Changes since last update: 45 New Orders: United Airlines (25 787s) and Unidentified Customer(s) (20 737s).

Here's the occompanying PR for the UA order:
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Boeing-and-U...ml?x=0&.v=1

Not much of an update this week:

QUOTE

Changes since last update: Two new orders: (Somon Air two 737s).

Never heard of that carrier before, but apparently they are from Tajikistan.

That's right. They took delivery of 2 737-800s in late 2008 / early 2009 from SpiceJet's order, but these two are the first direct purchase by Somon Air. Boeing confirms that these two orders are 737-900ER.

http://boeing.mediaroom.com/index.php?s=43&item=1103

Dave

The 20 frame 737 UFO order booked back on February 22 is for Turkish Airlines, 10 737-800 and 10 737-900ER.

And some UFOs identified in the February database update:

10 787-8 ordered on December 22, 2009: Republic of Iraq
1 737-800 ordered on September 29, 2008: US Navy (gives three total on this date)
2 737-700C ordered on November 13, 2008: US Navy

New update:

Boeing does not surrender orders lightly. Therefore, whenever a cancellation is announced, always look for the trade-off.

I would suggest Continental as a likely customer for both the cancellation and for the new order. CO did similar deals to this one three times in 2009, in aggregate dropping a total of four 777 orders for 14 737 orders (these 737 orders are still held as Unidentified Customer orders by Boeing).

Confirmation is unlikely to be possible until CO files its 2010 first quarter 10-Q report with the SEC sometime in April 2010.

Dave

Update:

The 787 cancellation is obviously the Air Berlin one.

Agreed on the 787. The 737s are POSSIBLY the four ordered by Atlant-Soyuz way back in 2006. Atlant-Soyuz are apparently in fianncial difficulties, see link:

http://www.diigo.com/bookmark/http%3A%2F%2...mp;uname=rseies

(It's not the best link but the Moscow Times site is subscription-only). Article is dated 14-Jan-2010



No mention of the 737 purchase contract here.

Dave

2006 was near the high-water mark for 737NG (and A320) sales prices and lease rates, so Atlant-Soyuz could be saving some serious coin by getting out of those contracts and leasing Russian metal.

I suppose Boeing won't have to pay taxes on the Moscow Design Center for a decade or something as a condition to letting A-S out of their contract.

Hmm, another Russian carrier in financial troubles, now that is something new. Hey, how about merging Atlant-Soyuz into Aeroflot then as well, seems to be Moscow's best idea to help their airlines these days .

Finally, an update again, and it's pretty good:

737s - there's a mismatch here with Virgin Blue saying they have ordered 50, but Boeing recording 40. Possibilities are either that ten orders were placed by UFO in 2009, or that 10 are not yet totally firm.

777s - possibly Jet Airways who have 2 777-300ER remaining on order, and most of their 777-300ER fleet leased out (4 to THY Turkish, and now 3 to Thai).

http://www.livemint.com/2010/03/25203301/J...ircraft-Bo.html

Dave

The Seattle-PI reported that 10 of those orders are fully cancelable, so Boeing is not recording them as firm until DJ actually signs a contract to take delivery. So they're treated as Options at the moment.



Might also be CO shedding some more 77Es they feel they don't need.

Boeing's O&D plus Unfilled Orders reports confirm that in March VA have cancelled two 77Ws, CO cancelled one 77E and ET converted one 77W to a 77F.

The 737 cancellations now confirmed as RAK Airways, order for 4 placed 21-Feb-08

Dave

Some other database highlights: LAN Airlines converted 4 787-9 orders to 787-8; 2 767-300ER to 767-300F, also 1 UFO 767-300ER to 767-300F (but the UFO order is almost certainly from LAN)

And also Pegasus Airlines was responsible for the following 737-800 UFO orders: six on March 18, 2008; 11 on July 28, 2009; and 11 more on September 30, 2009.

With LA getting 787-8s this year (as planned), they probably no longer need the 767-300ERs...

Interesting update this week:

A UFO for 12 777s? Who could realistically be behind that?

Emirates?

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=new...id=a0a7Mlnbc4ec

EK makes sense based on Chairman Sheikh Ahmed bin Saeed al-Maktoum's statement.

In the UFO report, Pegasus Airlines of Turkey were behind the 6 UFOs ordered on 2008.03.18, the 11 UFOs ordered on 2008.07.28 and the 11 UFOs ordered on 2009.09.30.

Didn't remember that news article, but definitely makes sense. EK is probably the only airlines that would be ordering a dozen 777s these days.

Someone with solid contacts within EK claims they are not behind the order.

If they aren't, the only other customer I can think of off the top of my head is TG. They're leasing 77Ws and 77Fs as interim lift as they prepare to place their future product orders, so more of each plus some 77Ls as A345 replacements sound at least plausible.

Now confirmed that these three 737-700 orders are Continental. CO's SEC 2010 First Quarter 10-Q report released 22-Apr-10, and available here:

http://ccbn.10kwizard.com/xml/download.php...&format=PDF

shows on Page 11 that:



Boeing's Unfilled Orders report at 31 March 2010 shows that Continental had 41 737s on order. At the same date Continental say 58, a difference of 17, which itself is an increase of 3 since the end of December 2009.

The 777 and 787 numbers above mentioned match exactly with the Boeing Unfilled Orders report..

Furthermore, Page 92 [Exhibit 10.4 to the 10-Q filing] - shows Supplemental Agreement 19 between Boeing and Continental relating to 777 purchases. Most of the text therein in redacted, but the agreement is 'contingent on the concurrent execution of the 737 supplemental agreement no. 54 to purchase agreement no. 1951' This agreement [Exhibit 10.2 to the 10-Q filing] is on Page 60 of the filing. Again it contains a lot of redacted text, but both these agreements are dated 02-Mar-2010, which is the same date that Boeing recorded the order of the 3 UFO 737-700s.

Dave

Doesn't quite make up for 2 cancelled by El Al today.

I guess this identifies the above orders.

It does not. TAAG's order was a 2009 UFO.

Update for this week:

The 777 cancellation should be El Al.

As for the 20 777s, would this be Emirates? They were looking for an order for "12+ 777s" and are realistically the only airline that could order that many 20 777s at once these days.

EK seems to make the most sense at the moment.

In this case, the model breakdown will tell us a lot. If it's 20 -300ERs, it's likely Emirates. If it's a mix of -300ERs, -200LRs, and Fs, it's probably Qatar. If it's all -Fs, well then it's neither of those two.

EK delayed their financial report today so that it would not get buried by coverage of the General Election in the United Kingdom because the numbers are said to very positive. EK was also expected to announce an aircraft order, as well, though some think it might be firming the 16 A330-300 MoU they have been sitting on for some time. The owner of the "All Things 787" blog say the order is for EK and will be announced at the Farnborough Air Show.

Boeing has released their April 2010 Orders report and it shows that 22 UFO 777s were ordered on April 30th - 18 77Ws and 4 77Fs. And yet Boeing recorded 2 UFO 777 orders on April 27th (I am guessing two 77Fs).

The four 777Fs are almost assuredly for FX (FX employees state the company has internally announced new 777F orders) which leaves the 18 77Ws as still to be identified.

Perhaps FX ordered two 77Fs the week of April 27th and then decided to order two more immediately after, so Boeing just combined them? Though I admit that sounds kind of strange...

It seems unlikely that another carrier would order two 77Fs and then change their mind a handful of days later, just in time for FX to show up wanting four 77Fs and therefore able to take those two plus two others and Boeing just combined them under April 30th as a single order and ignore the previous order instead of recording a 2 frame cancellation on April 30th and a four frame order that same day.

Yes, a mismatch between Boeing's weekly and monthly data. 2 777 orders placed in weekly update of 27-Apr-10 have disappeared and been replaced by 22 777 orders this week. Boeing's overall 777 numbers do match. Confirmed that the four 777F ordered on 30-Apr-10 are Fedex, see SEC filing: http://ir.fedex.com/secfiling.cfm?filingID=950123-10-45603
Note also about Fedex acquiring 2 more 777F from another party, either AF or CSN?

Other Boeing database changes this month are:
1 737-700BBJ ordered by Business Jet / VIP Customer(s) on 22-May-07 has been cancelled
4 777-200ER ordered by El Al on 01-May-08 have been cancelled
1 777-200LR ordered by Unidentified Customer on 18-May-09 changed to show Business Jet / VIP Customer(s) as the ordering party
2 777-300ER ordered by Unidentified Customer on 20-Oct-09 changed to show TAAG Angola as the ordering party
2 (of 24) 737-800 ordered by Unidentified Customer on 18-Dec-09 changed to show Rwandair as the ordering party - 22 remain Unidentified.

Dave

I would guess CSN? AF only has three 777Fs in service, so if they hand over two, how effective would just operating one be?

FedEx purchased 2 of AF's 4 777Fs

On second thought the following article indicates FedEx already has 6 777Fs (which would be 4 from Boeing and 2 from AF). CSN's 777Fs are probably correct.

http://memphis.bizjournals.com/memphis/sto...03/daily23.html

Update this week:

Wonder who is behind the 787 cancellation, is it an actual airline, or is ILFC trying to reduce costs further?

My guess is Delta took the 18 firm NWA orders and reduced it to 12, but kept the options and also ordered the 777s. Just theory, of course....

The 787s are said to be UFOs, so I am wondering if this is a top-up order from an existing customer where the financing either fell through or the airline now feels it is more prudent to conserve cash.

Air Transport Intelligence says it was AWAS that cancelled. AWAS inherited the order when they took over Pegasus Aviation.

As of May 25th:

Interesting update this week:

looks likr the 787 is on the move again.

Update of week ended 29-Jun-10



There are two customers with exactly seven 777s on order - American Airlines and JAL International.

Dave

Hm, if it's one of those two airlines, it's probably JAL. Granted, they want to remove 744s and replace them with smaller 77Ws, but 77Ws don't exactly come cheap. Maybe JAL has realised that keeping some 744s would be more financially viable than buying new 77Ws.

As for AA, if they were to cancel their remaining 777s, I'd expect them to place an additional 738 order at the same time, as in, using their capital to replace further M80s instead of growing longhaul.

A post on "Aircraft Orders" maintains that it was JAL. I guess we'll know next week when Boeing updates their database.