For those geeks on here obsessed about UFO orders, looks like 21 of them are for JAL - 10 737s, 2 777s and 9 767s

I wonder how many of these orders are going to survive the bankruptcy process? I would have thought the 767s would be toast, for starters...



Source: Bloomberg

Looking at Boeing's UFO orders, I am going to hazard a guess they are:

10 x 737-800 placed on 04 May 2009
09 x 767-300ER placed on 17 September 2008
02 x 777-300ER placed on 17 September 2008

I missed it the first time, but there was a 10 frame 737-800 UFO order on 17 September 2008, so that must be JL's.

Perhaps, or perhaps not. I remember from the endless debates on the USAF tanker procurement that a portion of the 767s are manufactured in Japan. Will Japan Incorporated allow 2nd and 3rd order effects to impact their manufacturing base?

With the 787-3 dead, one would think JL would need those planes for replacement/expansion of existing 767s in their fleet.

Doubt JL will cancel any of those planes on order. Sure, they plan to shrink a lot and replace mainline planes with (M)RJs, but still, 10 738s counted against 25 Mad Dogs, and 2 77Ws and 9 763s counted against 36 744, 3 762s and however many 763s they may want to retire, isn't exactly much capacity.

Boeing has updated their orders database and the UFOs are now showing up as JL birds.

Also, JL are said to get those 767s towards the end of the year, so while they could cancel them, they will be giving up the deposits and a good bit of progress payments if they do so.

I'd suggest that the B737-800 orders will be fairly 'safe'.

There is a lot of talk in this part of the world that in resolving much of JAL's financial mess, we will see the establishment of a JAL-owned Japanese-domestic LCC operation, for which these B737-800's are probably destined.

While this has been 'speculation', an article in the Australian and Japanese press has already surfaced indicating that .. as part of the OneWorld "Assistance" package .. that BA would provide STG 200m PNDS of direct capital injection in conjunction with the AA equity infusion of US$1.4 Billion - and that Qantas would provide management expertise in the setting up of an associated domestic "airline-within-an-airline" LCC JAL-based carrier. Similar to the Jetstar operation in Australia, which has - so far - been the only creditable and successful operation of an LCC within a major legacy carrier.